Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are neck and neck in Pennsylvania, with results nearly identical to when President Joe Biden was presumed to be the Democrat nominee, according to a poll.
The Commonwealth Foundation poll of 800 registered voters, conducted after Harris became the frontrunner to be the Democrat nominee, showed her and Trump tied at 44 percent in a race including third-party candidates. Independent Robert F Kennedy Jr. lands in third place with six percent, while the Green Party’s Jill Stein and Libertarian Chase Oliver tie at one percent.
Another three percent of respondents were undecided.
In a hypothetical two-way race, Harris and Trump are neck and neck at 47 percent and 46 percent, respectively, while another four percent said “other,” and three percent selected “none of the above.”
The margin between them is unchanged from June’s Commonwealth poll between Trump and Biden when Biden was presumed to be at the top of the Democrat ticket. Biden took 45 percent of the response to Trump’s 44 percent in that poll’s head-to-head matchup.
When those who didn’t pick Trump or Harris were pressed to pick one in the latest poll, 15 percent went for Trump, 24 percent chose Harris, and 61 percent still did not lean one way or another.
When those figures are factored into the overall sample, Harris is at 48 percent, and Trump is at 47 percent.
Interestingly, only 42 percent of voters think Harris should be the Democrat nominee. Half of voters believe that alternatives to Harris should be considered, and eight percent were unsure if she should be the nominee or not.
However, most voters, 58 percent, think that President Joe Biden should serve out the remainder of his term, with just 28 percent saying Harris should replace him and serve the final five months. Another 14 percent were unsure.
In the poll’s release, the Commonwealth Foundation Senior Vice President Erik Telford emphasized that “pocketbook issues” are at the forefront of Pennsylvania voters’ concerns heading into the election.
“We expect to see the candidates crisscrossing the commonwealth over the next three months. They would be wise to focus on pocketbook issues, such as inflation and high energy costs, which are top-of-mind voter concerns,” Telford stated in the poll’s release.
The Harris campaign has notably focused on abortion as a top issue since she entered the race. She referenced it in her launch, where she neglected to talk about inflation, while it was essentially the only issue her campaign chair, Jen O’Malley Dillon, referenced in an interested parties memo claiming Harris would win the election.
The poll was conducted from July 23-25 and has a margin of error of ± 3.46 percentage points.
