The fourth season of Dave Aranda’s tenure as the head football coach at Baylor did not go as planned. The Bears tied their worst record in Big 12 play under Aranda at 2-7 and went just 3-9 overall with wins over Long Island, at UCF, and at Cincinnati.
That, however, only tells part of the story of how tough a year it was in Waco. In 11 games against FBS opponents, Baylor was outscored 393-247, giving them an average point margin of -13.2 on the year.
Heading into 2024, Aranda has made some significant staff changes and will go back to calling the defense and Jake Spavital (Cal) is now in position to take over calling the offense.
Will the changes be enough to turn things around for Aranda, or will another disappointing season be the final nail for a career that looked so promising in Year 2?
Here’s an overview of the Bears’ 2024 squad and what you should expect from this group over the course of the season.
Baylor Offense: A Win-Finn Scenario?
Landing first-team All-MAC quarterback Dequan Finn out of Toledo was no small feat for Baylor, and, in all reality, it could be the move that saves Aranda’s career if everything works out according to plan. In three full seasons with the Rockets, Finn started 32 games throwing for 7,070 yards and 63 touchdowns, adding 1,840 rushing yards and 26 touchdowns.
Perhaps the best thing that happened for Finn, and Baylor for that matter, this offseason was the addition of new offensive coordinator, Jake Spavital, who will bring an up-tempo, spread offense that should fit naturally in the Big 12.
Finn will have some good skill talent around him, too, with the return of Dominic Richardson, Richard Reese, Monaray Baldwin, Ketron Jackson, and the addition of new tight end target Michael Trigg (Ole Miss). Adding Finn while also returning nine other offensive starters from a season ago means the Bears should be much-improved on the offensive side of the ball.
Related: Baylor Football Continues Recruiting Hot Streak, Lands Another Four-Star Prospect
Baylor Defense: Aranda is Back on the Sticks
Returning seven starters from a unit that gave up 33 points per game might not be something to be excited about at most places, but considering the fact that Baylor played so many underclassmen last season and that Aranda is now calling the defense once again, there’s reason for optimism in Waco.
Baylor returns all four starters in the back end, with Carl Williams, Lorando Johnson, and freshman All-American Caden Jenkins leading the way. One of the biggest additions that nobody seems to be talking about is WKU transfer EDGE JaQues Evans, who brings four years of experience along with him. Evans was named the 2023 CUSA Preseason Defensive Player of the Year before seeing his season cut short by injury, but could make a big difference for the Bears if he can get after the quarterback.
Southern Texas transfer Elinus Noel is also a newcomer to watch on this side of the ball, and at 6-foot-2, 330 pounds, he’ll be hard to miss up front.
Perhaps the brightest spot for Baylor last season was the play of LB Matt Jones, who returns for his senior season. With 82 tackles and 11.5 tackles for loss in 12 starts, Jones was as consistent a player as you could find for BU, and he’ll have more help around him this year.
Baylor Special Teams: The Strength of the Team
Baylor’s special teams unit was among the best in college football last season and should be there yet again with kicker Isaiah Hankins and punter Palmer Williams both back in action in 2024. Phil Steele projects this to be a fringe top-10 unit this season, given the experience returning.
Prediction: Bears claw to 6-6 to save Aranda’s job
Having success early in your career as a head coach is certainly a good thing, but can end up working against a young coach if things go south at some point. That’s exactly what’s happened with Aranda, as a 12-2 record and No. 6 finish in the polls seems like a distant past after doing 9-16 over the last two seasons.
After making some wholesale changes on both sides of the ball this year, Aranda is coaching for his job and he needs to get to a bowl game (at least) to keep this thing on the tracks. The schedule is daunting, with road games at Utah, Colorado, Iowa State, Texas Tech, and West Virginia, while the Bears will host BYU, Oklahoma State, TCU, and Kansas. Baylor will likely only be favored in four games this season, but a couple of upsets gets them to the a bowl game and keeps Aranda in town.
Related: Predicting Every Game of the 2024 Big 12 Football Season
