Donald Trump’s campaign is unsure if another debate with Kamala Harris would be helpful for his chances in November, and experts have told Newsweek that another head-to-head with the vice president might not work for him.
Tuesday’s presidential debate was the first time that former president Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris met in person. After the debate, which saw the two candidates clash over abortion, the war in Ukraine, and whether or not immigrants have been eating dogs, a snap poll of viewers run by CNN found that the majority of the audience considered Harris the winner.
The Harris campaign immediately challenged Trump to another debate, with Fox News inviting both candidates for another showdown, but some political experts believe that more debates could hurt the Republican nominee.
Presidential historian Dr. Laura Smith, a researcher at the University of Oxford, told Newsweek: “The Trump campaign tried to organize more debates against Harris, perhaps to relieve the pressure of this one debate, but also to broaden coverage across different network audiences as they looked to have different networks host.
“Following the debate, Fox News has invited both candidates for a follow-up debate. But it is difficult to see what Trump could gain apart from more media exposure, which he often craves and has been lacking since Harris became the candidate.”
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Smith said that this election has seen a revitalization of the importance of political debates, after their decline in recent cycles, saying: “2024 will go down in history as the year presidential debates not only became relevant again but were most significant in ending not only a campaign but the Biden presidency.”
“The first-ever televised debates in 1960 between John F. Kennedy and Richard Nixon were also historic in giving Kennedy credibility over Vice President Nixon. In an election where the economy also loomed large, President George H W Bush appeared disconnected and disinterested in contrast to Bill Clinton answering voters’ questions in 1992.”
“Debates usually benefit great communicators, as exhibited by Ronald Reagan in both 1980 and 1984. There are of course exceptions to this, Barack Obama had one bad debate performance in 2012 against Mitt Romney, but bounced back on the campaign trail and had a greater opportunity of doing so given that there were three debates.”
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Peter Loge, a former adviser within the Obama administration and Director of the George Washington School of Media & Public Affairs, said that a second debate would yield little benefit for the Trump campaign, and suggested that the impact of debates on the election remained small.
“A second debate would come in late in a campaign which is likely to remain close,” Loge told Newsweek. “Trump has historically responded to situations that require finesse by wielding a rhetorical mallet. If voters are really unsure whose judgement and policies they prefer, a second debate might push them to Harris because she is more focused and less prone to nonsense-filled rants.”
“Trump is better with a large crowd, few rules and sympathetic moderators. Even under last night’s relatively tight rules, Trump managed to keep talking and ended up with more airtime than Harris.
“Harris is a trained courtroom lawyer. Courtrooms operate under strict, and strictly enforced rules. Harris is good with rules and procedures, so situations in which there are rules that people are expected to follow work to her benefit. Throughout his professional, television and political careers Trump has demonstrated that he considers rules something that other people have to follow.”
Andrew Reeves, a researcher of executive politics at Washington University, agreed that the structure of the debates this election don’t play well with Trump’s instincts and mannerisms.
“Trump would probably not benefit from another debate,” Reeves said. “Last night, Harris spoke less but attacked more and Trump rambled on and on. Trump needs to prepare more and practice self control to have a better performance. But it’s hard to see that happening.
Like Smith and Loge, Reeves also identified that the historical trend of debates having limited impact on the race made it harder to justify another head-to-head for Trump, telling Newsweek: “It’s also important to remember that the these debates really don’t move public opinion all that much.
“While the Biden/Trump debate was of monumental importance in mobilizing a change at the top of the ticket, it moved support for Trump by less than a point and Biden only saw a 1.5 point dip in his support among likely voters.”
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