1. A brave new (and always better) world
Change is evil, we’ve been told. The beauty and pageantry, the soul of fall Saturdays, is gone.
Until it isn’t.
Until reeling Michigan finds itself against surging Southern California and reasserts in the first game of the new Big Ten.
Until Tennessee leaves no doubt about where it’s headed in its first game in the new SEC, and how we all better get serious about living under a Big Orange Moon.
Until Georgia and Alabama — the undisputed kings of the sport in the College Football Playoff era — prepare this week for a regular season heavyweight fistfight that can only be described as Marvin Hagler and Tommy Hearns.
Google it, kids.
“I can’t imagine anything making any game feel less important in this sport,” Georgia coach Kirby Smart told me in July.
I ask you, when has change in college football ever not worked?
The Bowl Championship Series arrived in 1998, and was full of annual whining and complaining. And the sport exploded from regional popularity to national relevance.
The College Football Playoff arrived a decade ago, and the “end of every game matters” crowd wailed. Now college football is second only to the big, bad NFL in popularity.
Now that the CFP has expanded to 12 teams (and eventually 14 or 16 in 2026), those same nattering nabobs of negativism are complaining about the “loss of the regular season.”
I think I can speak for Illinois vs. Nebraska, Stanford vs. Syracuse and San Jose State vs. Washington State — high-level, last-second games last week on a random Friday night — when I say, are you out of your collective minds?
In the last 26 years, college football has survived (in no particular order): multiple postseason format changes, multiple phases of conference realignment eliminating two (two!) Power conferences (Big East, Pac-12), and multiple lawsuits that exposed the nonsensical ideal of the “amateur model” and moved the sport closer than it has ever been to a mini version of the NFL.
To this I say: yeah, so?
Players earning off their name, image and likeness, and free player movement, and more postseason games doesn’t mean the end of college football as we know it.
It means the birth of something bigger and better.
BOWL PROJECTIONS: Two unlikely newcomers join the playoff field
PLAYOFF BRACKET: SEC teams likely facing squeeze at end of season
2. Georgia vs. Alabama: Let’s play three
It wasn’t that long ago when Alabama vs. LSU was the be-all, end-all of the 2011 season. Then they played again in the BCS National Championship Game, the horror of that rematch pushing the sport into the CFP era.
Now here we are, and Georgia and Alabama could conceivably play three times this season. So could Ohio State and Oregon.
So could Tennessee and Georgia, or Tennessee and Alabama or numerous other combinations of elite teams within the SEC and Big Ten. We could even get — hold onto your hat, folks — three Holy Wars in one season.
I’m not sure the state of Utah could handle it — though it would be fantastic to introduce the world to the most hated rivalry this side of Alabama-Auburn.
Look, if you’d rather see Georgia vs. TCU because it’s “different,” take your 58-point loss in a national championship game and be happy with it.
I’ll take the possibility of what happened In the 2021 NFL season, when the 49ers and Rams played three times — and the last two games were undeniably the best two of the entire season.
3. More is better, The Epilogue
Let’s debunk one narrative that quickly gained traction with the introduction of the new CFP format: the same three or four teams will win, anyway.
More teams in a tournament means more games, and more opportunity for rare individual performances. And more opportunity for injuries to impact games.
Winning three or four postseason games in a long season that includes multiple heavyweight games in the regular season isn’t as inevitable as you think. Consider this road for No.1 Georgia: games remaining at No. 4 Alabama, at No. 2 Texas, at No. 5 Mississippi and vs. No. 6 Tennessee (still think the regular season is “lost” with the new CFP format?).
If the Bulldogs get through that schedule, they’ll need another win in the SEC championship game against another heavyweight to earn a first-round bye in the CFP. Or they’ll have to win four more games to win it all.
BOWL PROJECTIONS:Two newcomers move into College Football Playoff field
4. Army vs. Navy: twice in one season
I don’t want to be an alarmist, but we’re not that far from Army and Navy playing twice in one season.
The Cadets and Midshipmen are unbeaten, and both will be a handful in American Athletic.
Navy beat AAC favorite Memphis by 12 last week, and still must play remaining league heavyweights South Florida and Tulane. Army doesn’t play any of the three.
If Army and Navy advance to the conference championship game, it will be played the week before the annual game. That’s right, everyone, back-to-back weeks of the greatest rivalry in college football.
The only question that remains: which is more important? A conference championship, or The Game.
5. The Weekly Five: Welcome to the season, Ohio State
Five key facts for national title favorite Ohio State, which gets its first test of the season Saturday at Michigan State.
1. A star-filled offense is averaging 8.6 yards per play (TB Quinshon Judkins, 9.3 yards per carry; WR Jeremiah Smith, 20.1 yards per catch).
2. The Buckeyes are Top five in the nation in scoring offense (52.3) and defense (6.7).
3. The offense has seven plays of 40-plus yards, five of 50-plus yards and three of 60-plus yards.
4. The three opponents this season (Akron, Western Michigan, Marshall) have a combined 3-7 record.
5. Ohio State’s last win vs. a power conference team was Nov. 18, 2024, a 37-3 win over Minnesota.
6. An NFL scout’s view: Michigan CB Will Johnson
An NFL scout analyzes a draft eligible player. The scout requested anonymity to protect the team’s draft preparation.
“He’s physical and long, and is a terrific athlete. He understands the game situationally, which is so underrated. He knows how to set up quarterbacks and receivers, and you can tell he studies opponents and specific players. A smart football guy who is also an elite athlete, and has been making plays in big games since his freshman season. The first player taken at his position.”
7. Power Play: Utah arrives
This week’s College Football Playoff poll, and one big thing.
1. Texas: Defense is No. 2 in the nation in scoring (5.5 ppg.) and opponent long scrimmage plays of 10-plus yards (5 per game), No.4 in opponent third down conversion percentage (21.8), and No.15 in turnovers forced (8).
2. Ohio State: The combined scoring defense ranks of Ohio State’s three opponents: Akron (130th in the nation), Western Michigan (129th) and Marshall (92nd).
3. Miami: Canes lead the nation sacks (16), and Virginia Tech — Friday’s ACC opener in Miami — is 110th in the nation in sacks allowed (10).
4. Utah: If QB Cam Rising (lacerated finger) is healthy, no one in the Big 12 is beating the Utes.
5. Georgia: Georgia’s only win vs. Alabama under Smart was against a Tide team playing without its two best receivers in the second half of the 2021 national championship game.
6. Alabama: The quarterback comparison in the Georgia series since 2016 (Smart’s first season at Georgia): Alabama quarterbacks (15 TD, 6 INT), Georgia quarterbacks (11 TD, 7 INT).
7. Tennessee: In four games, the Vols’ defense has got off the field with a three and out, on downs, with a turnover or a safety in 37 of 54 drives — or 68.5 percent of the time.
8. Ole Miss: The combined record of the Rebels’ first four opponents (Furman, Middle Tennessee, Wake Forest, Georgia Southern ): 5-10.
9. Oregon: Ducks don’t play a new Big Ten rival until Oct. 4 (Michigan State), or a road game against a new conference rival until Oct. 16 (at Purdue).
10. Missouri: Despite three legitimate deep threat options (WRs Luther Burden III, Theo Wease Jr., Mookie Cooper). QB Brady Cook is averaging only 7.1 yards per attempt.
11. Clemson: The offense is finding its pace and stride, and Tigers likely won’t be tested until the first week of November (vs. Louisville).
12. Boise State: Washington State, potentially the Broncos’ most difficult game on the schedule, is 84th in the nation in run defense. Boise State RB Ashton Jeanty leads the nation in rushing (193.7 ypg.), and is averaging 10.5 yards per carry.
8. Mail bonding: Penn State’s first test
Matt: Why haven’t I seen Penn State in any of these College Football Playoff projections? No love for the Nits? — Paul Davidson, Richmond, Va.
Paul:
It’s starts with the schedule. The West Virginia win was clunky with weather delays, a game that everyone eventually ignored. Then Bowling Green nearly beat Penn State in Week 2, and the Lions routed a terrible Kent State team — after an open week — last weekend.
Translation: there’s nothing sexy about the Lions. Yet.
We’ll learn plenty about Penn State this week against unbeaten and surging Illinois. Two teams with similar styles (run the ball and throw play action, and play strong defense), this has the potential to devolve into a classic Big Ten rock fight.
Like it or not, fair or not, CFP projections — and to a point, weekly polls and the actual CFP poll — are influenced by offense. Penn State’s offense needs to show it in a game that matters.
9. Numbers game: Nebraska’s swoon
34. When Nebraska lost to Illinois in overtime last Friday, it marked the 34th one-possession loss by the Huskers since the start of the 2017 season.
That number is far ahead of any other program in the nation, and has been the deciding factor in Nebraska failing to reach the postseason in the previous seven seasons.
The Huskers have lost in nearly every conceivable way, including six games in overtime, three times to Group of Five schools (Northern Illinois, Troy, Georgia Southern), and five contest by a combined 22 points to bitter rival Iowa.
Next up: desperate Purdue, blown out in back-to-back losses to Notre Dame and Oregon State. The Boilermakers have three wins over Nebraska since 2017 by a combined 15 points.
10. The last word: Beware, LSU
LSU under new defensive coordinator Blake Baker is 14th in the SEC in scoring defense and total defense, and giving up an SEC-worst six yards per play.
It is here where we introduce South Alabama, LSU’s opponent Saturday and a dangerous spot for a defense that hasn’t stopped anyone this season. Redshirt freshman QB Geo Lopez hasn’t thrown an interception all season, has nine touchdown passes and is averaging 9.2 yards per attempt.
The Brian Kelly isolation camera could get interesting on the SEC Network telecast.
Matt Hayes is the senior national college football writer for USA TODAY Sports Network. Follow him on X at @MattHayesCFB.
