Although the purple state of Nevada boasts just six electoral votes, it could deliver a âbig blowâ to Vice President Kamala Harris and pave a path to victory for former President Donald Trump, experts told the Daily Caller News Foundation.
Although Nevada has consistently voted blue since 2008, the race between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is tightening in the swing state, which could prove damaging for the Harris campaign. Although Nevadaâs electoral weight is smaller compared to other battlegrounds, the Silver Stateâs unique economy and demographic makeup could be a deciding factor for which candidate takes the White House, experts told the DCNF.
âThere are very few paths to victory that do not involve Nevada,â Dheeraj Chand, a Democratic strategist, told the DCNF.
âIt would be a big blow to her when we take those electoral votes,â McLaughlin told the DCNF.
âOne of the particularly interesting things about it is itâs the only state that President Trump lost twice,â Jeremy Hughes, a GOP strategist based in Nevada, told the DCNF. âNow, he has a chance to flip it this cycle.â
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The polling between Trump and Harris has been tight, with the Republican nominee trailing the Vice President by just 1.4 points, according to RealClearPolling averages. The most recent Hill/Emerson poll has put the two neck and neck at 48%, while Harris boasts just a one point lead over Trump according to a recent American Greatness poll.
The swing state has gone blue for nearly two decades, but by slim margins. In Nevada, both former Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton and President Joe Biden defeated Trump by 2.4 points in 2016 and 2020, respectively.
âRepublicans were able to win a gubernatorial election, which I would say, outside of Brian Kemp, was maybe the bright spot for Republicans on election night [in 2022],â Hughes told the DCNF. âSo it has moved a little to the right. Voter registration in the state has also moved significantly. In fact, I think more Republicans than Democrats will vote in this election.â
Nevada currently has two Democratic Senators, Jacky Rosen and Catherine Cortez Masto, as well as a Republican governor, Joe Lombardo. Of the 17 counties across the state, 15 of them have voted Republican in the last two presidential elections.
Will Nevada go for Trump?
Over 15% of Nevadaâs economy is derived from tourism, with visitors spending over $55 billion in the state in 2023. Trumpâs âno tax on tipsâ proposal was one pitch that would accommodate Nevadaâs unique economy, which Harris echoed herself on the campaign trail.
âNevadans are focused on the issues that hit closest to homeâkitchen table issues like rising costs, stagnant wages, and affordable housing,â Michael McDonald, Nevada GOP chairman and senior Trump advisor, told the DCNF. âWhen we ask ourselves if we are better off than we were four years ago, for most of us, the answer is no. The cost of living has gone up, gas prices remain high, and inflation continues to erode the value of our hard-earned paychecks.â
âPresident Trumpâs emphasis on helping Americans keep more of their hard-earned money, from no tax on tips, no tax on Social Security, and no taxes on overtime work, is resonating with voters across our state,â McDonald told the DCNF. âAs Nevadans look to the future, they are increasingly turning to President Trumpâs economic policies as the solution to getting ahead, not just getting by.â
Because Nevadaâs economy is largely reliant on tourism and the service industry, pandemic shutdowns crippled the workforce. As a result, Nevada currently has the highest unemployment rate of any state in America at 5.5%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
âWhen the country gets a cold, Nevada gets the flu,â Hughes told the DCNF. âEverything is economic. Everything on the economy hurts more in Nevada, and people will remember how the economy was when President Trump was in office.â
âIf we lose Nevada, it is because we are having problems with the service industry, and because weâre having a lot of problems with Latinos generally,â Chand told the DCNF.
Nevada has a substantial Hispanic population, with roughly 20% of the stateâs households being Spanish speaking. Although Latinos have historically been blue voters, Trump has made significant strides, trailing Harris by just three points among the demographic, according to a recent Nobel Predictive Insights poll.
âThe reason why Kamala Harris is doing her Univision town hall in Vegas is precisely because weâre doing so well with Latino voters,â John McLaughlin, a Trump campaign pollster and CEO of McLaughlin & Associates, told the DCNF. âHarris is in trouble in Nevada.â
Experts like Chand and McLaughlin highlight that the reason Trump has gained among Hispanics is likely because they are dissatisfied with the current Biden-Harris Administration.
âI think itâs really important to be clear about this,â Chand said. âItâs not so much that is a Republican, or that itâs Trump who gained, as much as it is a Democratic loss. Some of this is Democratic defection.â
âWhen you talk about Hispanic voters, you talk about American citizens,â McLaughlin told the DCNF. âHispanic voters are coming to Trump because, like other Americans, theyâve gotten hurt by inflation. The basic cost of food and gas, buying a car, buying a house or paying rent has hurt them.â
Due to Nevadaâs polling and the greater political landscape, strategists like Hughes and McLaughlin are optimistic about Trumpâs chances.
âThe momentum on the ground to elect new leadership in Washington is strong,â McDonald told the DCNF. âNevadans want a President who will prioritize their financial security and return to a prosperous economy, and thatâs exactly what President Trump is delivering.â
âI would rather be President Trump when it comes to Nevada than Kamala Harris,â Hughes told the DCNF.
The Harris and campaign didnât immediately respond to requests for comment.
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