The 12-team College Football Playoff model offers wiggle room never before seen for teams vying for a national championship. But that margin of error may not be as wide as originally thought.
According to ESPN’s Rece Davis during the College GameDay Podcast — three losses means you’re likely out of the playoff.
“I thought, and it has been the wrongest of wrong predictions ever, when I pulled Kansas out from the Big 12. I thought the three-loss team would come from the Big 12,” Davis told co-host Pete Thamel. “Now I’m going to say, Pete, I’m going to say no because I don’t think Iowa State or BYU will get to three losses.
“Texas Tech, could. That could be the caveat, because they’ve already lost a non-conference game. They could still dump a couple of conference games, find their way into the conference title game and then win it. So in that scenario, maybe, but I’ll say no.”
That means any teams representing a power conference as an at-large bid will have two or fewer losses during the regular season. That already cuts out teams like Michigan and Ole Miss are one loss away from playing themselves out of the playoffs in Davis’ scenario.
For the Big 12, Iowa State, BYU, Texas Tech, Kansas State and even Arizona State are all undefeated or one-loss teams. Kansas State and even Arizona State have losses in-conference, but there’s still time left in the regular season to play catch up depending on how the rest of the year shakes up. If there is a three-loss team, the Big 12 is likely to produce it.
Still, upsets have been plantiful throughout college football this season, and nearly every team has been tested in one way or another. Even top-ranked Texas has had to deal with adversity at the quarterback position, although that worked out in the Longhorns’ favor.
The first College Football Playoff rankings won’t be released until Tuesday, Nov. 5. Two weekends of college football will be played before then, and if this season has proven anything — nothing is guaranteed.
