Almost two months before Israel’s military accidentally located Hamas’ leader with the help of a drone, and then killed him, Yahya Sinwar had been hiding in southern Gaza with six Israeli hostages ― one of them an American citizen.
The bodies of the hostages were recovered by Israel’s military in late August after they were executed by their captors, in a near-miss rescue effort by the Israel Defense Forces. It set off a wave of protests and widespread rebuke of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
The revelation, first reported this week by Israel’s Channel 12 broadcaster and confirmed to USA TODAY by a person familiar with the matter Friday, comes amid intense speculation over who might succeed Sinwar as the leader of Hamas. And, ultimately, what impact his death will have on the pace and intensity of the war in Gaza: whether it will accelerate efforts to reach a cease-fire and hostage deal after more than a year of fighting or intensify the conflict across the region.
Basem Naim, a senior member of Hamas’ Qatar-based political wing, said Friday in a statement that Sinwar’s death did not mark the end of the organization and that the group “cannot be eliminated.” Hamas’ Lebanon-based ally Hezbollah vowed to escalate its fight with Israel following Sinwar’s death and Iran, which backs both groups with finance and weapons, said Sinwar’s death would strengthen regional “resistance” to Israel.
Sinwar, 61, is widely regarded as the chief planner and orchestrator of Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, attacks on Israel. He was killed by Israel’s military on Thursday during what appeared to be a routine search for Hamas members in a building in Rafah shelled by Israel’s forces. In other words, Sinwar was stumbled upon.
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Sinwar’s body was identified by DNA, dental and fingerprint records Israel obtained decades earlier when he spent years in an Israeli prison for killing IDF soldiers and alleged Palestinian collaborators with Israel.
Drone footage released by the IDF on Thursday appeared to show Sinwar’s final moments before he was killed. The footage shows a drone entering a building with blown out windows. Everything is covered in dust. The drone flies close to a man sitting in a chair. His face is covered. After a few seconds, the man picks up what looks like a stick or piece of debris and throws it at the drone. A short while later, the IDF shelled the building.
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Sinwar was later identified as the man in the video, although Israeli military spokesperson Daniel Hagari said Sinwar had only been identified as a Hamas fighter, not the group’s leader, when he was killed by the shell. He said Sinwar was found wearing a bulletproof vest and in the possession of grenades and about $11,000 in cash.
About 1,200 people were killed and 251 kidnapped back to Gaza during the Hamas attacks on Israel last year. Israel believes that around 101 hostages are still in Gaza, alive or dead. Israel’s officials stressed Thursday that none were discovered with Sinwar in the building where he died alongside two of his bodyguards.
But the shelling which took his life did take place in the same area of Rafah where the six hostages were killed in August, according to the person familiar with the matter, who spoke on the condition of anonymity. That has led to speculation over whether Sinwar may have been forced to hide above ground since late August after he fled the tunnel complex where the six hostages were held.
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The person familiar with the matter said it was likely though not yet fully corroborated that Sinwar gave a direct order for the hostages to be killed as he fled a tunnel in Rafah in southern Gaza that was being searched by the IDF and Shin Bet, Israel’s internal security service.
The bodies of Israeli-American Hersh Goldberg-Polin, 23, Eden Yerushalmi, 24, Ori Danino, 25, Almog Sarusi, 26, Alex Lobanov, 32, and Carmel Gat, 40, were found in a narrow, 400-foot-long tunnel in Rafah on Aug. 31. Israel believes they were likely executed by their Hamas captors two days earlier as the IDF closed in on their location. The IDF recovered Sinwar’s DNA in the tunnel complex where the bodies of the killed hostages were found.
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Gil Dickmann, Gat’s cousin, said in a press conference Thursday that his family felt like “justice has been served” with the elimination of Sinwar.
“People ask us whether we’re happy. Our happiness cannot be complete until all the hostages are here in Israel. What we celebrate is not the elimination of our enemies. That’s not enough for us. We celebrate life, and we will celebrate when the hostages come back home.”
More than 42,000 Palestinians have been killed by Israel in Gaza over the last year, according to the Hamas-run health ministry. Israel has since the start of war come under enormous U.S. and international pressure over the high rate of civilian deaths and its failure to allow more humanitarian aid into Gaza.
Netanyahu has said that Sinwar’s death does not mean the war in Gaza is over, though the Biden administration has seized on his killing as an opportunity, it says, to revive talks between Israel and Hamas for a long-discussed temporary cease-fire and push for an end of the war in the Middle East.
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There is currently little evidence to suggest such talks are imminent.
It is also difficult to accurately assess the future trajectory of Hamas.
Kobi Michael, the former head of the Palestinian desk at Israel’s ministry of strategic affairs and now a senior research fellow at Israel’s Institute for National Strategic Studies, said Hamas has “several options” when it comes to Sinwar’s replacement.
The “most natural one,” he said, may be Sinwar’s brother, Mohammed, leader of the Al-Qassam Brigades, the military wing of Hamas.
Michael said Mohammed Sinwar doesn’t have “the charisma or the ideological, historical and religious perspective that his brother had, but he has a lot of experience” including in the 2006 kidnapping and abduction of Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit. Mohammed Sinwar also oversaw the building of Hamas’ tunnel infrastructure in Gaza.
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Michael said that after a year of fighting Hamas has been left with “marginal military capacities.” He estimated that of the approximately 40,000 fighters Hamas had a year ago it now likely has between 10,000 to 15,000. He said Hamas has been able to attract new recruits but they are young, poorly trained and inexperienced.
Many are teenagers.
“Hamas is now left with guerrilla and terror warfare against the IDF in Gaza,” Michael said.
“But they are very limited in their success. From time to time they launch a rocket or two but Hamas is at the end of the road militarily. That does not mean Israel will reach every last terrorist or RPG in Gaza,” he said, using an acronym for a rocket-propelled grenade.
Michael added: “It does mean Hamas will not be able to control Gaza effectively. Not from the governmental point of view. Not from the military point of view. Not from the point of view of being able to create a security threat as they were able to on Oct. 7.”
This story has been updated with additional information.
