As we pick up the pieces from an active slate of college football games over the weekend, let’s take a crack at predicting what top 25 teams will be moving up, and down, in the Week 9 rankings.
Results across the SEC will have the most effect on this week’s top 25 rankings after a top-15 battle on Rocky Top and a top-5 clash on the Forty Acres that should have voters rearranging what teams belong where around some consequential spots near the top of the poll.
And in the Big Ten, one team is moving up the rankings after a signature victory at home, while college football’s defending champions are on the downswing after a second-straight loss.
What will AP voters make of all the changes?
SI reveals our predictions for what teams will make the biggest moves up and down in the AP top 25 rankings as we look ahead to Week 9 action.
Last week’s ranking: No. 5
Desperate to avoid what would have been a costly second loss, the Bulldogs played like their back was against the wall, putting out an elite defensive performance in a win at No. 1 Texas.
Georgia’s defense generated 7 sacks and forced 4 takeaways that the offense was able to convert into 17 points, and held the Longhorns off the scoreboard entirely in the first half.
Is that enough to jump into the No. 1 position in this week’s rankings?
It’s possible, given almost all of last week’s first-place votes will be up for grabs, and beating the No. 1 team in the country could be considered enough for the No. 5 team to make that jump.
But voters could be more likely to reward Oregon’s undefeated record and will remember Georgia’s loss earlier this year to an Alabama team that is now at 2 losses.
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Last week’s ranking: No. 1
It’s gut-check time for the Longhorns’ offense, which was so out of sorts in the face of Georgia’s pressure that Steve Sarkisian swapped Quinn Ewers for Arch Manning briefly in the first half.
But it was Ewers who came back into the game and led two critical touchdown drives in the third quarter to make it an 8-point game and put the Bulldogs on the back foot for a time.
Still, this was the Longhorns’ biggest test so far in the SEC and the loss serves as a stark reminder that winning in this league consistently will be a tall order.
Texas has now lost its last 5 games at home against top-five ranked opponents, and while there’s still a clear path to the playoff, its resume has taken a hit as wins against Michigan and Oklahoma don’t look very impressive anymore.
A fall from No. 1 is a given, but we still project the Longhorns will stay in the top-five in this week’s rankings as voters will consider them the best one-loss team in the country.
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Last week’s ranking: No. 11
There was an element of surprise and relief that added to the jubilation when the Vols upset the Crimson Tide at Neyland two years ago, but this time around, it almost felt expected.
And as the Big Orange faithful lit victory cigars after a 24-17 victory over Alabama in the Third Saturday in October game, Tennessee took one giant leap closer to College Football Playoff contention.
That was despite some sluggish early offense yet again that raises legitimate questions about the trajectory of quarterback Nico Iamaleava.
But in the meantime, the Vols’ solid rushing attack and physical defensive front have carried this team to a 6-1 record and an inside track in the playoff hunt.
With that, we should see Tennessee move into the top 10 of this week’s rankings at Alabama’s expense heading into an open week, and with a date at Georgia the only major obstacle left on the schedule.
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Last week’s ranking: No. 7
Alabama fans probably expected a few bumps in the road as Kalen DeBoer found his way, but a loss to Vanderbilt, a near loss to South Carolina, and a loss at Tennessee have the Tide’s playoff hopes in peril in mid-October, an almost inconceivable thought back in the preseason.
It marks the first time since 2007 that Alabama has lost two games before November and the first season since 1984 the program has losses to both Vanderbilt and Tennessee, as it stumbles into the throes of an identity crisis coming out of the historically dominant Nick Saban years.
That brilliant offense that looked unstoppable against Georgia has since lost that momentum, going three-and-out on 3 of its final 4 possessions against the Vols, with the fourth being an interception by Jalen Milroe.
AP top 25 voters will want to punish the Tide, which should drop at least inside the top 15 with other teams ranked lower winning this weekend.
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Last week’s ranking: No. 16
This isn’t just a basketball school this season, as first-year head coach Curt Cignetti has rejuvenated this offense and put the Hoosiers directly in College Football Playoff contention.
Having to face Nebraska’s tough defense was supposed to be the first real test, and Indiana passed it with flying colors, moving to 7-0 for the second time ever after shellacking the Cornhuskers in a 56-7 beatdown.
Indiana has outscored opponents 80-0 in the first quarter through seven games, and has outscored teams 94-17 in the fourth quarter, including 14-0 against Nebraska.
IU has won its first 4 Big Ten games by an average of almost 4 touchdowns each, is 2nd nationally in total point differential against Power Four opponents this season, and is 1 of 2 teams yet to trail at any point in any game this season.
How realistic are the Hoosiers’ playoff hopes? They should be favored in 4 of their final 5 games — Washington, Michigan State, Michigan, and Purdue — with the date at Ohio State being the exception.
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Last week’s ranking: No. 24
Don’t underestimate Michigan’s dismal passing attack. It’s genuinely terrible.
Cycling through three quarterbacks, the offense has 6 passing touchdowns, 8 interceptions, and 3 fumbles this season.
And after a 21-7 loss at Illinois, the Wolverines have 3 losses before the start of November for the first time since the 2014 season, the year before Jim Harbaugh came aboard as head coach.
With his departure, it looks more each week like the program he left behind is regressing to its pre-Harbaugh condition in record time. This is the week Michigan falls out of the rankings.
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– We predict Oregon will be the No. 1 team in the country this week, moving up from No. 2, with voters more likely to reward the Ducks’ undefeated record over Georgia’s one loss.
– No. 23 Army moved into the rankings last week and should inch up again after improving to 7-0 with an impressive win against East Carolina that once again showcased its dazzling backfield talent, and the Black Knights are the other team in college football yet to trail this season.
– Likewise for Navy after it punched Charlotte in the mouth in a smothering defensive effort that included two interceptions returned for touchdowns.
– BYU had some defensive issues but Jake Retzlaff hit on a game-winning touchdown for the Cardiac Cougars to take down Oklahoma State and stay perfect in the Big 12.
– Oklahoma was clinging to 36 votes in last week’s rankings, but should lose all of them after a shocking performance against South Carolina in which the offense let the other team score touchdowns off turnovers on consecutive possessions and allowed 9 sacks. This team is lost.
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More … When the AP top 25 rankings come out
And … Predicting the AP top 25 rankings for Week 9
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