In a major diplomatic breakthrough, the government on Monday announced that India and China have reached an agreement to resume patrolling at the remaining friction points along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in eastern Ladakh, where tensions have persisted since the Galwan Valley clash in 2020.
In a press briefing, Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri said the agreement marks a significant step toward disengagement, particularly in the remaining friction points, indicating the sensitive areas of Depsang Plains and Demchok.
Experts suggest that while this is a significant step in diffusing tensions between the two countries, India should be cautious about China’s motives.
Participating in a debate on India Today TV, geostrategist Brahma Chellaney said while it’s a welcome step towards diffusing some tensions with China, New Delhi should not see this as a breakthrough.
“The Chinese have yet to release their statement on this understanding, and we have to recognise that China is not going to roll back its land grabs in Depsang and Demchok,” Chellaney said.
“What this new patrolling arrangement is, only time will tell, because details keep out slowly, as they did in the case of the buffer zone arrangements,” he added.
According to Chellaney, three things are required to end a standoff — disengagement, de-escalation, and de-induction of rival forces.
“Today, what has been announced by the Indian side only relates to the first step, disengagement of rival forces. The second and third steps would be very difficult because China has created permanent new warfare-related infrastructure along the India frontier,” Chellaney said.
“A return to status quo ante, both in terms of how the border looked before April 2020 or how the territorial control existed along the Ladakh frontier before April 2020 when China made its land grabs on Indian territory, is not coming back,” he added.
Lt General Syed Ata Hasnain (Retd) seconded Chellaney’s argument. “A lot has happened in the last four-and-a-half years in terms of infrastructure development, deployment and things like that. To roll back that entire thing overnight without a proper detailed agreement may not be possible,” he said.
According to Lt General Hasnain, escalation happens in a matter of seconds, but de-escalation invariably takes years.
“When you’re looking at de-escalation, I think it’s a question of really putting the pause button, and it will move very, very incrementally. One shouldn’t look at it as if one fine day, there’s an announcement, and everything is hunky-dory and resolved,” he said.
He said the announcement by the government is to prepare a ground for a meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the BRICS Summit in Kazan on Tuesday.
“There is some positivity in the backdrop behind it (potential meeting). That is about all,” he said.
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