He was the consensus first pick in a much-hyped 2021 quarterback class, a player many pegged as the best prospect the league had seen in years. Some used the terms “generational talent” or “can’t miss” to describe him.
We are now three years into Trevor Lawrence’s career with the Jacksonville Jaguars, and while he’s the only first-round QB from the 2021 draft still with his original team, he’s not even the best quarterback in the AFC South — that would be the Texans’ C.J. Stroud, last year’s No. 2 pick and Offensive Rookie of the Year.
NFL scouts, evaluators and decision-makers raved about Lawrence during his time at Clemson, resulting in one of the most consistent narratives about a QB since Andrew Luck came out of Stanford in 2012. Everybody had the same take. Lawrence checked every box for physical measurements and talent: Size, arm, athletic ability, accuracy — you name it, he had it. Oh, and he was a winner without any intangible concerns. He was the prototype.
I do, however, remember thinking this at the time: He’s going to need to be reprogrammed from Clemson’s RPO-heavy, simplistic passing game and be taught an NFL passing game from the ground up, conceptually. But who better to work with than a prospect who checked all of the physical boxes and had a sky-high ceiling?
Lawrence is still just 24, and the sky remains the limit, but he hasn’t blossomed quite yet. Why? I went looking for answers.
The numbers
Let’s start with a 30,000-foot view through the numbers.
Lawrence’s rookie year under then-coach Urban Meyer was obviously a disaster by any measurement. He was thrown in the fire amid a circus in Jacksonville, run by a coach who had no idea how to lead professional football players. (Incidentally, this came as a surprise only to those who hired Meyer because many around the league knew this would not work.) So we can flush the first year of Lawrence’s development plan and his 71.9 passer rating, which tied for second worst in the NFL.
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The last two seasons have clearly been better. Lawrence’s passer rating climbed to 95.2 (tied for ninth best) in 2022, although it dropped to 88.5 (21st) in 2023.
Let’s focus on just 2023 for a minute. Lawrence completed 65.6 percent of his passes, which ranked 14th. He threw 14 interceptions (tied for fourth most) and had 21 turnovers, which was third most behind only Sam Howell — who is already on his second team — and Josh Allen, who, good as he is, is a human carnival ride.
Some of the biggest concerns came in high-leverage moments. Ten of Lawrence’s turnovers came on third down, the most in the NFL, per TruMedia. He converted just 38 percent of third downs, ranking alongside Desmond Ridder, Daniel Jones and Joshua Dobbs and well behind league leader Jalen Hurts (48 percent). On third downs in the fourth quarter, Lawrence completed 58.1 percent of his passes. League leaders in that category were in the mid-to-high 70s, led by Kyler Murray (79.2 percent).
A gift for the @Ravens‘ defense
📺: #BALvsJAX on NBC
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/8fWNSGquwb pic.twitter.com/0TgyMpMXgo— NFL (@NFL) December 18, 2023
Some might question the offensive scheme under head coach Doug Pederson. For comparison’s sake, I went back to the Eagles with Pederson and Carson Wentz. In 2017, when the Eagles won the Super Bowl despite Wentz’s late-season knee injury, he finished with a passer rating of 101.9 and 10 total turnovers (again, Lawrence had 10 on third down in 2023 alone!), along with a 65 percent completion rate on third downs. That was peak Wentz but worth noting because the offense was similar in design. Wentz declined in 2018 and 2019 but still had fewer than 15 turnovers in each season, before his Philadelphia tenure fell apart in 2020.
The film
Lawrence’s physical skills are still as evident as they were when he was a freshman at Clemson. He can make all the throws with both velocity and touch.
But his internal clock — knowing when to get the ball out — and his decision-making under pressure are still a work in progress. It’s important to evaluate college QBs when they face pressure, but that’s not always easy. At top college programs, QBs aren’t forced into survival mode often. But in the NFL, the pocket is chaos and they are always being rushed, if not jostled around.
Lawrence seems to want to flush from the pocket as soon as possible instead of stepping up. Those muddy pockets are not for everyone, even if you are 6-foot-6. It’s worth noting he battled knee, ankle and shoulder injuries during the 2023 season, missing one game and being listed as questionable for five others. That certainly could have affected his comfort in the pocket.
I don’t think Lawrence is struggling with a lack of processing. It’s often a lack of patience to sit in there and let targets declare. Sometimes, his best options did not declare until late in the down. Having spent 10 years with the Chargers and Philip Rivers, I can say he was the best I ever saw at making decisions late in the down. When fans were yelling to get rid of the ball, he had a calm patience, allowing him to work best when under the gun. After all, the pocket is not for everyone.
It appears Lawrence wants his targets defined quickly, which limits the offense, in my opinion. Having patience, even as pressure is coming, is what separates the good from the great at the NFL level. While Lawrence is an exceptional athlete, he too often defaults to using that athleticism early in the process, moving off his spot.
I think his relatively low completion rate was more a product of his decision-making than a lack of accuracy. I would love to see him take the checkdown more often, rather than rushing to the decision to make harder and sometimes riskier throws downfield. Sometimes by looking deep, you can see short. He hasn’t perfected that yet.
Lawrence seldom gets to a second or third read because he doesn’t give the big picture of the play design enough time to reveal itself. He will look to a second option at times, but it’s just not often enough. Other times, he looks, but he doesn’t see, which is an important distinction. It sounds simple, but many quarterbacks struggle to throw to an open receiver they are staring right at. This issue can be fatal if not corrected.
Though Lawrence’s completion rate is not a product of poor accuracy, I still see only average accuracy for an NFL quarterback. He has not developed consistent pinpoint ball placement, but at times he can fit the ball in tight windows as well as the better QBs in the league.
His athletic ability is certainly evident when he’s pressured by free rushers. Defenders struggle to corral him and also to get him to the ground. He has the speed to run away from tacklers, which is a big plus, and his elusiveness in the pocket is top-five caliber in the NFL.
Trevor Lawrence has been getting it done with his legs all game.#JAXvsNO on Prime Video
Also available on #NFLPlus https://t.co/89nUeCngbn pic.twitter.com/kfaSeQLqU0— NFL (@NFL) October 20, 2023
Pederson and the Jaguars’ offensive staff have tried to use Lawrence’s legs often by design, and some of his best work has come on RPOs and rollouts to get him out of the pocket. He’s very accurate on the move, going in either direction, so this is probably a good idea. But I’m not sure it’s sustainable for an NFL offense to rely on it heavily over time because it doesn’t require the defense to cover one-third of the field (the back side, away from the roll). So there are positives and negatives to that methodology.
The spacing of Jacksonville’s pass game and the route running have been a work in progress, as well. The Jaguars have had a revolving door of receivers over the last few years, with the mainstay being tight end Evan Engram, who has developed into a very valuable option (you can almost consider him a slot WR). His body control and route running make him a matchup nightmare for any linebacker, which often helps Lawrence.
What comes next?
Whether it’s the offense, the personnel around him or that he’s feeling pressure to compensate for an underachieving defense, Lawrence’s game seems stuck somewhere between third and fourth gear.
His talent has taken him this far, but he is still learning to play quarterback after three years in the NFL. He has not advanced his trade enough to consistently operate at a high level and make people better around him. I feel as though he is executing the offense as the coaches ask but giving them very little beyond what the design and play calls are meant to produce. He has to improve his decision-making, especially when under pressure and on third downs, and take care of the ball.
Lawrence has the potential to be a more athletic Joe Burrow, but to this point, I see a bigger, faster version of Daniel Jones. The upside is still clear, but he is now eligible for a contract extension, and the top of the quarterback market is now well over $50 million per year. At that cost, the Jaguars would be vastly overpaying for what they are currently getting, and speculative stocks cause sleepless nights.
Pederson said last week that the team hopes to get a deal done soon. With what I know, I would not reset the market right now for Lawrence, who has two years and $31.3 million remaining on his contract, although I would see if I could sign him for less (which probably isn’t realistic but worth trying). Absent that, I would prefer to slow-play the situation, knowing I have him under contract through 2025 and the franchise tag available after that if necessary, while keeping my options open.
Now, I’m not advocating against paying him. Team-building around a quarterback is always a work in progress, and as a general manager, you’ll never be totally satisfied with your roster. But Lawrence still needs to grow, and paying him market-setting money would make it more difficult to provide him with the help he needs to keep growing.
One other major factor here is the coach. Pederson has declined to say whether he or offensive coordinator Press Taylor will call plays in 2024 (they split duties in 2022, and Taylor handled them in 2023). If I were Pederson, I’d keep this in mind: Nobody has more of an effect on the development of a young quarterback than the play caller. I believe Pederson has no choice but to be hands-on in this regard.
Both his and Lawrence’s futures hang in the balance. If I were in that situation, I’d want my hands on the wheel.
(Photo: Mike Carlson / Getty Images)
