Shout-out to fellow New York Post sports betting analyst Michael Calabrese for this wild gambling trend: Since 2018, short-week Service Academy games — i.e., played on Thursday or Friday — are 14-3 to the Over.
Why? Because prepping for the triple-option is difficult and takes time.
Therefore, opponents are woefully underprepared in these spots.
Army takes its triple-option to Temple on Thursday.
The Knights offense has looked excellent through three weeks, ranking third nationally in EPA per rush in blowouts of Lehigh, FAU and Rice.
They’ve rushed for more than 1,000 yards at more than six yards per carry.
Meanwhile, the Owls can’t stop the run, ranking 107th nationally in EPA per rush allowed and 114th in rush success rate allowed.
They’ve allowed almost 900 rushing yards at more than five yards per carry – Oklahoma rushed for 220 (6.1), Navy rushed for 300 (5.8), Coastal Carolina rushed for 180 (4.4) and Utah State rushed for 180 (4.9).
Army should score at will Thursday, but its defense has looked questionable in non-conference play, ranking 116th nationally in success rate allowed and 98th in EPA per play allowed.
Temple’s offense looks much improved after switching to Evan Simon at quarterback.
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He’s completed 65% of his passes for 8.8 yards per attempt, seven touchdowns and one pick, leading the Owls to a 20-point effort against Coastal Carolina and a 45-point effort against Utah State.
And the Owls are also expected to get wide receiver Zae Baines back this week, adding an extra weapon to an ever-improving offense.
THE PLAY: Army-Temple Over 45.5 (-110, FanDuel)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Tanner McGrath has been a professional sports handicapper since 2018. Specializing in college sports and baseball, he’s a diehard fan of the Vermont Catamounts, the Miami Marlins and any home underdog. He found himself on the wrong side of the Miami Miracle in 2018, but made up for it four years later by hitting a 40/1 long shot on Sandy Alcantara to win the NL Cy Young.
