The 2024 NBA postseason is well underway, and the basketball betting market is hotter than ever. CBS Sports will provide daily picks for the duration of the postseason. Sam Quinn will make at least one pick for every game between now and the NBA Finals.
Eight teams in the post-merger NBA have taken a 3-0 lead in the Finals. Six of them swept the series. The two that didn’t were largely outliers. The 2017 Cavaliers made 24 3-pointers. If the Mavericks do that in Game 4, they’ll probably win, but that’s not exactly a replicable formula. The 1996 Sonics finally allowed Defensive Player of the Year Gary Payton to guard Michael Jordan. The Mavericks don’t have a Gary Payton waiting in the wings, and if they did, they wouldn’t have waited three games to use him properly. Boston remains undefeated on the road in the playoffs. Congratulations to the impending NBA champion Boston Celtics. The Pick: Celtics +1
I’m conceding defeat on the overs in this series. Boston has taken away the only shots the Dallas role players are capable of making. They took around 16 corner 3’s per game in the Oklahoma City series. They’re down to around five in this one. There are no lobs available for Dereck Lively or Daniel Gafford. The Mavericks haven’t yet scored 100 points in a game in the Finals. They can’t score enough to reliably hit overs in this matchup. The Pick: Under 211.5
I’m thinking somewhat symbolically here, but the Celtics have had a different leading scorer in each of the first three games of the Finals. The egalitarian offense is baked into their DNA, so I’m expecting a different scorer to step up in Game 4. Derrick White has only four made 3-pointers so far in the series. There’s plenty of available opportunity near the basket, he’s a relatively low priority for the Dallas defense, and he’s gone over this total twice in three games in the Finals. The Pick: White Over 15.5 Points
Sam Hauser has now made more 3’s in the Finals (five) than every Mavericks reserve combined (four). More importantly, he excelled defensively in over 14 minutes in Game 3, and the Celtics won his minutes by 16 points in what was ultimately a nine-point win. He’s proven he’s capable of taking on a real role with Kristaps Porzingis out, and he’s attempted nine total 3-pointers in the past two games. I’m expecting the Celtics to continue to lean on him, and for him to deliver from deep. The Pick: Hauser to make at least two 3’s
Doncic hasn’t had a true scoring explosion in this series yet, and that might not be feasible given how good the Celtics are defensively, but in a season-ending game, I think he’s going to make sure that the Mavericks don’t go down without him swinging. He’s getting defended one-on-one, and while that has taken away shots from his role players, it opens the door for him to put up gaudy numbers. There’s nothing left to hold back. If he doesn’t score 40 or more, the Mavericks might just not have a chance. The Pick: Doncic Over 32.5 Points
