College Football Playoff stock watch: Yes, Indiana has a better chance than Alabama

Every week, the College Football Playoff picture seems to get flipped upside down in some respect.

Week 8 did not disappoint — and I don’t think many weeks could disappoint, given how this season is shaping up. Georgia went into Austin and took down No. 1 Texas, while Alabama lost at Tennessee and Indiana continues to ascend in the Playoff conversation. Now, the Hoosiers are in my bracket and the Crimson Tide are out.

Every Tuesday, I look at teams that have increased or decreased their stock the most in the Playoff picture, according to my projections model. With the nature of the 12-team Playoff as well as the growing parity in the sport, no team is ever safe — just ask Alabama — and the field is far from being set. In fact, as we head into Week 9, my projections give only eight teams above a 52 percent chance to make the Playoff: Oregon (96 percent), Miami (93), Georgia (93), Ohio State (90), Penn State (90), Texas (75), Notre Dame (75) and Clemson (64).

There are, in theory, at least four spots that are wide-open, and 15 more teams have at least a 10 percent chance of making the Playoff. For now, let’s address Indiana’s rising stock, Alabama’s falling stock and a couple of unexpectedly key games this weekend.

Stock up

Indiana

This isn’t the first time Indiana’s name has popped up on this list, but the Hoosiers deserve another shoutout after demolishing Nebraska 56-7. They’re 7-0 for the first time since 1967, and my model projects them to have a 65 percent or greater chance to win in every remaining game except for their trip to Ohio State. That means they’re sitting pretty for a Playoff bid after they were totally off the map in the preseason.

The wild card is quarterback Kurtis Rourke, who has led the way this season and even garnered Heisman Trophy talk but was injured during the game against Nebraska. He ranks first in the FBS in expected points added (EPA) per dropback and dropback success rate among qualified quarterbacks. The Ohio transfer has been playing as well as anyone, which has Indiana leading the nation in scoring and squarely in the Playoff race.

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The question is how long Rourke will be sidelined with the thumb injury. He will not play Saturday against Washington but is expected to return this season. Backup quarterback Tayven Jackson closed out the Nebraska game by going 7-for-8 for 91 yards and two touchdowns. Jackson will almost certainly be a downgrade, but beyond Ohio State, the remaining schedule is manageable, especially given Michigan’s struggles.

My model gives Indiana a 52 percent chance to make the Playoff, making it the projected No. 10 seed playing at No. 7 seed Texas.

Stock down

Alabama

How quickly things can turn. After its win against Georgia, Alabama had a 94 percent chance to make the Playoff heading into its game against Vanderbilt on Oct. 5. Just three weeks later, that number has plunged to 49 percent. Though Texas’ loss to Georgia stung — the Longhorns fell from 94 percent to 75 percent — the Crimson Tide’s drop is more painful.

The loss Saturday at Tennessee wasn’t too surprising, but the loss at Vanderbilt certainly was. Even with Vanderbilt playing better and now ranked in the AP poll, the upset will sting for a long time. Alabama will make the Playoff if it wins out, but its margin for error is near zero after it lost two games before November for the first time since Nick Saban’s debut in 2007.

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Alabama’s issue isn’t limited to just one area. Against Vanderbilt, the defense was gashed. Against Tennessee, the offense was nowhere to be found. The team is also 128th in penalty yards per game. I am more concerned about the defense, and games against Missouri (Saturday) and at LSU (Nov. 9) will be major tests for the Crimson Tide as they try to keep their season alive in Kalen DeBoer’s first season.

My model has Alabama on the bubble as the first team out of the Playoff, while Tennessee moved into the bracket with a 50 percent chance to make the field — up from 31 percent last week.

Mountain West gets Playoff spotlight

Boise State has been the Group of 5 Playoff participant in my projections since the preseason, but Friday night (10:30 p.m. ET, CBSSN) will put that status to the test.

The Broncos travel to UNLV for a battle of the two best teams in the Mountain West. Boise State is favored by only 3 points, and if it wins, it has to feel pretty good about where it stands if it can win out, as the Broncos’ only loss is on the road to Oregon. UNLV has a home loss to Syracuse, and even if the Rebels win this weekend, I think they have to be peaking over their shoulder at other potential Group of 5 teams like Army and Navy leapfrogging them.

If Boise State wins, its Playoff odds increase to 55 percent from 33 percent, while UNLV would fall to 17 percent. If UNLV were to win, its Playoff odds increase to 52 percent from 32 percent, while Boise State’s odds would fall to 20 percent.

What if Navy beats Notre Dame?

Navy is ranked No. 24 and has a season-defining game this week against No. 12 Notre Dame in East Rutherford, N.J. (noon ET Saturday, ABC). The undefeated Midshipmen have only a 6 percent chance to make the Playoff, but a lot of that has to do with the fact that they play Notre Dame this week and still have Tulane on the schedule — plus the potential AAC title game. Remember, their annual rivalry game with Army (which has a 28 percent to make the CFP and also plays Notre Dame) is after the College Football Playoff committee selects the bracket, so that game has no impact on the Playoff (though the two could meet for the conference title as well).

So how big of a hurdle is this for Navy? Right now, the Midshipmen are projected by the oddsmakers to beat Notre Dame just 20 percent of the time. If that 20 percent hits, Navy’s Playoff odds would increase to 10 percent, while Notre Dame would fall from 75 percent to 38 percent. Notre Dame already has a damaging loss to NIU, and my projection might be a little optimistic with this number. Either way, Navy has a chance for one of its biggest wins in a long time, in a game that unexpectedly has Playoff implications for both teams.

(Photos of Omar Cooper Jr. and Jalen Milroe: Justin Casterline and Butch Dill / Getty Images)