I can’t imagine how stressed I’d be if I actually put money on these oddly specific predictions. Hopefully, you don’t.
I went 6-3 picking games straight up last week (27-9 for the season) and nailed my upset for the third consecutive week.
One of these days I’m going to hit a weekly stat stuffer. It just hasn’t happened yet.
We’ll get to my hits and misses below, but first, here are this week’s picks.
Most passing yards
Oregon has slipped five spots from third to eighth in the AP preseason poll and — after an off week — is a 25.5-point favorite heading into a late-night kickoff at UCLA. This feels a bit like a trap game for the Ducks. But the Bruins have been dreadful offensively, ranking 123rd nationally in yards per game and 124th in scoring.
One thing UCLA has done well is stop the run, which makes me believe Dillon Gabriel will be busy throwing it well into the night and potentially making Oklahoma fans further regret his departure. The sixth-year senior won’t top his career high of 601 yards in a 2020 loss to Memphis while he was at UCF, but I’m putting him down for his 10th career 400-yard passing game and three touchdowns as Oregon wins by two scores at the Rose Bowl.
Most rushing yards
Utah, fresh off its big win at Oklahoma State, hosts Arizona in an important Big 12 showdown. The No. 10 Utes are an 11.5-point favorite over the Wildcats, who did not play last week after a 31-7 loss at Kansas State. We still don’t know if quarterback Cam Rising will play this week, but even if he doesn’t, you can’t count out the Utes because of their stout defense and the fact Micah Bernard is one of the best running backs in the country.
I expect Arizona’s offense, led by dynamic wideout Tetairoa McMillan (10 catches, 100-plus yards, one TD), to apply pressure on Utah and for the Utes to lean on Bernard to record another 180-yard-plus rushing performance with one touchdown. Arizona’s run defense (98th nationally) will be the issue as Utah covers the spread at home in a two-touchdown victory.
Just give me my moneyyyyy 💰 https://t.co/tnxswIAY54
— Micah Bernard (@ctb_mb) September 22, 2024
Most receiving yards
Colorado’s Travis Hunter has caught at least seven passes with at least 100 receiving yards in every game this season. He ranks fourth nationally in receptions (37) and sixth in receiving yards (472), and he is tied for fourth in TD catches (five). Oh, he’s also one of the best cornerbacks in college football.
The Buffaloes enter their Week 5 game at unbeaten UCF as 14-point underdogs. The Knights are coming off an idle week. That followed a 35-34 come-from-behind win at TCU on Sept. 14 in which they surrendered 402 passing yards. For Hunter to win the Heisman — as I predicted in the preseason — he and Colorado will need big performances on big stages. This is one of them. I say Hunter hauls in 12 catches for 190-plus yards and two touchdowns and intercepts KJ Jefferson once in a game UCF hangs on to win by a field goal because of RJ Harvey’s work on the ground (150-plus rushing yards, two TDs).
Travis Hunter is HIM. 7 receptions for 130 yards and this game-winning, walk-off forced fumble. pic.twitter.com/R5BbfFkNjI
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) September 22, 2024
Five big games
No. 20 Oklahoma State at No. 23 Kansas State (-4.5)
This matchup lost some sizzle after last week, but it’s still the most intriguing noon kickoff Saturday and one of only four ranked matchups on the day. Both starting quarterbacks come in struggling, but the difference here is Kansas State’s Avery Johnson can run. A couple of weeks ago, Arkansas’ Taylen Green threw for 416 yards and ran for 61 in a game the Cowboys eked out in overtime. Last week, Utah quarterback Isaac Wilson rushed for 41 yards on six attempts in the Utes’ win at OSU.
Oklahoma State, meanwhile, ranks 115th in rushing even though Ollie Gordon II — the 2023 Doak Walker Award winner — is averaging 18 carries per game (and is presumably healthy). I’m taking the better defense — Kansas State’s — to keep Gordon in check (70 yards or fewer) and for Johnson to play well (200-plus total yards, two TDs) in an 8-point Wildcats win.
No. 15 Louisville at No. 16 Notre Dame (-6)
The Fighting Irish have pounded Purdue and Miami (Ohio) since their stunning loss to Northern Illinois and come into Saturday’s midafternoon showdown with Louisville as a 6-point favorite. I’ve been asking myself if I made a huge mistake drafting Riley Leonard with the No. 8 pick in The Athletic’s preseason Heisman draft. And the answer, so far, is undoubtedly yes.
Leonard’s numbers through four starts are abysmal, and the only reason Notre Dame’s College Football Playoff hopes still have a pulse is because the Irish play defense and run the football. Louisville, meanwhile, is banged up at receiver and managed only 14 first downs and 326 yards in last week’s 31-19 win over Georgia Tech, its toughest opponent so far. Notre Dame keeps the ball on the ground (rushing for 200-plus yards), forces Louisville to settle for field goals in the red zone and gets revenge for last year’s humbling road loss with a 6-point win.
RILEY LEONARD GETS HIS FIRST TD PASS FOR THE IRISH! 🤩 #GoIrish pic.twitter.com/jcplIyndaH
— NBC Sports (@NBCSports) September 21, 2024
No. 19 Illinois at No. 9 Penn State (-17.5)
Illinois and Tennessee are the only two FBS programs with two top-25 victories this season. The Fighting Illini are 4-0 for the first time since 2011. Penn State, meanwhile, is just the latest team to take Kent State to the woodshed. So, are the Nittany Lions ready for a step up in competition?
Here’s what we know: Illinois’ Luke Altmyer and Penn State’s Drew Allar are top-20 passers who have played clean football to date, and this spread feels absurdly high. Five turnovers played a huge role in Penn State’s 30-13 win last year in Champaign. I expect Altmyer (10 TDs, zero INTs this season) to keep the Illini within a touchdown because he’ll take care of the ball. But Penn State will prevail because of its running game, with Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen combining for 160-plus rushing yards and two scores.
19th ranked Illinois travels to face #9 Penn State this Saturday. The last time the Illini went to Happy Valley they won this 9 OT thriller! pic.twitter.com/M143BlFxkx
— College Football Live (@CollegeFBonX) September 23, 2024
No. 2 Georgia (-1.5) at No. 4 Alabama
History says go with Bama. Kirby Smart is 1-5 against the Crimson Tide, and new coach Kalen DeBoer is 12-2 against ranked opponents. But who is better now? Both have had good and bad performances in wins. But Alabama’s nip-and-tuck game against USF at home a few weeks back is more worrisome than Georgia’s 13-12 nailbiter over Kentucky. Georgia’s win over Clemson, meanwhile, is also more impressive than Alabama’s road blowout at Wisconsin.
That said, this game comes down to who does a better job getting after the other team’s quarterback and preventing big plays. Jalen Milroe has been sacked and pressured more often than Carson Beck to this point. That will likely continue to be the story Saturday in another thrilling game. Milroe (200-plus passing yards, two total TDs) will give Alabama the lead late before Peyton Woodring’s last-second field goal wins it for the Bulldogs by 2.
Well that escalated quickly 😂 It’s Georgia vs Alabama in Tuscaloosa!
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Drinkware: https://t.co/8nskM60gm1#CollegeFootball #RollTide #GoDawgs pic.twitter.com/TdfjteSDT3— Josh Mancuso (@joshmancuso) September 24, 2024
Washington State at No. 25 Boise State (-7.5)
John Mateer and the Cougars won the Apple Cup two weeks ago and survived double overtime last week to slip past a good San Jose State team. Boise State, meanwhile, lost at Oregon 37-34 in Week 2 but could stake its claim as the top Group of 5 team with a win over the Cougars.
Both offenses are explosive, but the difference in the game will be Washington State’s inability to stop the run (107th in yards allowed per carry). Mateer (300-plus total yards of offense, two TDs) and Ashton Jeanty (200-plus rushing yards, three TDs) will put up big numbers, but Boise State will break a tie late and win a great game with a score on its final possession to improve to 2-5 all-time against Wazzu.
Upset alert
North Carolina at Duke (-2.5)
In case you were wondering, Duke and Rutgers are the only undefeated Power 4 schools that aren’t ranked or receiving votes in the AP poll. The Blue Devils are looking to start 5-0 for the sixth time in school history and win their annual fight for the Victory Bell for the first time since 2018. North Carolina is coming off its well-documented (and embarrassing) 70-50 loss at home to James Madison in which it surrendered 611 yards and turned it over five times.
Duke coach Manny Diaz lost three times head-to-head to UNC’s Mack Brown — his former boss at Texas — when Diaz was the head coach at Miami. UNC is going to win this meeting because it has the most explosive offense the Blue Devils have faced to date. Duke QB Maalik Murphy will put up numbers (250-plus passing yards, three TDs), but UNC tailback Omarion Hampton (150-plus rushing yards, three TDs) gets the last word.
Duke Head Coach spoke with the media on the Blue Devils big matchup this weekend against cross town arch rivals UNC and potential matchup problems the Heels will present outside of All-American RB Omarion Hampton. pic.twitter.com/jSQSeJrro2
— The Juice Network (@TheJuiceNC) September 24, 2024
Week 4 report card
• The best thing I can say about last week is that I not only picked Rutgers to upset Virginia Tech on the road, but I also got the margin of victory correct.
• Georgia Tech did put a scare into Louisville like I thought it would, but the Cardinals still covered the 10.5-point spread in a win. Haynes King eclipsed 330 total yards of offense (370 total) but didn’t produce three TDs (he had one), and Jamal Haynes came nowhere near the 100-yard rushing mark (25 yards, one TD). The game also wasn’t decided by a late Tyler Shough touchdown drive. The Cardinals ran back a blocked field goal to clinch it.
• I was right about Tennessee winning at Oklahoma and the Sooners defense keeping things close. But Dylan Sampson (92 yards, one TD) didn’t reach the 120-yard mark, and the Vols won by 10 points and not 5 as I predicted. Oklahoma’s Jackson Arnold also got benched (I called for 220 passing yards, two TDs), and Nic Anderson was reinjured in the first half and didn’t catch a pass. Neither was a factor.
• When I picked Utah to win at Oklahoma State, the thought was Rising would play. So, I went with the Utes to win by double digits. Rising did not play, but Utah still covered the 2.5-point spread and won behind its defense and the running of Bernard, who finished well over the 100-yard mark (185) that I forecasted.
• I came close to being right about USC-Michigan. But close doesn’t count. I said Alex Orji would make an impact for Michigan (100-plus rushing yards, 130-plus passing yards, two total TDs) but USC would escape the Big House with a 4-point win. I was wrong on both fronts. Orji threw for just 32 yards, ran for 43 yards and didn’t produce any touchdowns, yet Michigan scored with 37 seconds left to rally past USC 27-24. Trojans QB Miller Moss did eclipse 220-plus passing yards and two TDs (283 yards, three TDs), and Woody Marks did run for more than 80-plus yards (100 yards on 13 carries).
• So, as it turns out, Nebraska wasn’t ready to put an end to its 25-game losing streak to AP-ranked opponents. I was wrong about Dylan Raiola playing turnover-free football (he threw one interception), Dante Dowdell eclipsing 100 total yards and scoring twice (he had 82 total yards, zero TDs) and the Cornhuskers holding Illinois to under 300 yards (the Illini finished with 381). Most importantly, Nebraska lost 31-24 in overtime and didn’t cover the 9.5-point spread.
• I turned out to be quite the doofus for saying Appalachian State’s Joey Aguilar would throw for 400-plus passing yards in the best passing performance of the week and the Mountaineers would cover a 7.5-point spread with a two-touchdown win over South Alabama. Aguilar finished 30th in passing yards (266) for the week, and the Jaguars handed the Mountaineers a 48-14 beatdown.
(Photo of Kirby Smart: Michael Hickey / Getty Images)
