With just a month remaining until the election, polls in all seven battleground states show the race within the margin of error, leaving the door open for either candidate to potentially sweep all key swing states.
While Harris maintains a slim national lead of 2 to 3 points and holds an edge in four swing states, recent polling has shifted more favorably for Trump.
An ActiVote poll now puts Trump 1 point ahead nationally, and a Fabrizio/McLaughlin poll shows him leading in every swing state. Pollster Nate Silver’s tracker shows that Trump has made gains in every swing state other than Georgia in the past week. This momentum raises the possibility of a landslide victory for Trump.
But what constitutes a landslide? There is no precise definition, but political scientist Gerald Hill told the Associated Press that “it usually means exceeding expectations and being somewhat overwhelming.”
Newsweek reached out to the Trump and Harris campaigns for comment via email.
270toWin
If we mean one candidate winning at least 100 more Electoral College votes than their opponent, there have been seven landslide election victories over the past 50 years.
To achieve this, Trump would have to win all seven battleground states and flip one state that Democrats won last time. According to poll tracker FiveThirtyEight, the closest race after the swing states that Democrats won last time would be Minnesota. Trump nearly won Minnesota in 2016 and is within striking distance this time, with Harris currently leading by 5.9 points.
Meanwhile, online betting platform Polymarket shows that Trump has a 10 percent chance of winning Minnesota in November. If this happened, and Trump won all the swing states, the former president would win 322 Electoral College votes to Harris’ 216, constituting a landslide victory.
Here’s a look at the state of play in key states and what it might mean for a potential landslide win.
Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin
The key to victory in the 2016 and 2020 elections was winning Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, though neither Trump nor Biden’s victory was a landslide.
Trump narrowly won all three states in 2016, and Biden flipped them in 2020 when he also won by narrow margins.
FiveThirtyEight’s polling average shows that Harris is currently ahead by small margins in all three states.
In Pennsylvania, the most likely state to decide the election, Harris is currently polling 0.6 points ahead of Trump, according to FiveThirtyEight. Nate Silver’s polling tracker shows that her lead is slightly bigger in the state, at 1 point.
However, while Harris has a marginal lead in the state, which offers 19 electoral votes, recent polls have indicated that a Trump victory in Pennsylvania is not out of the question.
Silver’s tracker shows that Trump has gained 0.3 points in Pennsylvania since last week, bringing his vote share to 47.6 percent compared to Harris’ 48.6 percent. Harris was 1.3 points ahead in the state a week ago. RealClearPolitics’ tracker also shows that Trump gained 0.3 points in Pennsylvania after he and Harris tied in the state a week ago.
Meanwhile, in the past week, polls from TIPP Insights, Fabrizio, Lee and Associates, and Emerson College have shown Trump leading among likely voters by 1 point, with an Insider Advantage poll giving him a 2-point lead.
However, other polls, including TIPP Insights’ poll of registered voters, have Harris ahead by up to 4 points. A Research Co. poll put Harris 1 point ahead, while Quinnipiac University showed her leading by 2 to 3 points.
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The polls in Wisconsin and Michigan look less favorable for Harris, who currently leads by 0.6 points in the Badger State and 0.7 points in the Wolverine State, according to FiveThirtyEight. Silver’s tracker shows her leading by 1.2 points in Wisconsin and 1.1 points in Michigan.
According to Silver, Trump has gained 0.8 points in Wisconsin since last week, bringing his vote share up to 47.6 percent and cutting Harris’ 2-point lead almost in half. In Michigan, the Republicans have gained 0.9 points, cutting Harris’ lead down from 2 points a week ago.
Meanwhile, Harris only leads in one poll in each state conducted among likely voters in the past week, while polls have shown Trump leading by between 1 and 2 points.
Arizona and Nevada
The presidential race could come down to the wire in Arizona and Nevada, with recent polling showing the margin of victory could be razor-thin in each state.
Biden won Arizona in 2020 after Trump won it four years earlier, and this year, it could be too close to call. In Nevada, Biden scored a relatively narrow victory in 2020, though the state hasn’t given its Electoral College votes to a Republican since 2004.
Nonetheless, FiveThirtyEight’s polling average shows that Trump is ahead by 1.4 points in Arizona, while Harris leads by 0.5 points in Nevada. Silver’s tracker shows Trump with a 1.3-point lead in Arizona and Harris with a 1.5-point lead in Nevada.
Silver’s tracker also shows that Trump has gained 0.4 points in the polls in Nevada in the past week, while he has made a marginal gain of 0.1 in Arizona.
Not many polls have been conducted in either state since last week. However, the ones that were did not show promising results for Harris. In Nevada, a Fabrizio, Lee and Associates poll put Trump 3 points ahead. His lead was just within the poll’s margin of error of +/- 3.5 percent.
Meanwhile, a poll by Emerson College put Harris ahead by just 1 point, well within the poll’s margin of error of +/-3.2 percent.
In Arizona, three polls put Trump ahead by between 1 and 3 points. Those include polls by Fabrizio, Lee and Associates, where Harris trailed her opponent by 3 points; Emerson College, where Trump was ahead by 2 points; and ActiVote, where Trump was ahead by 1 point among 400 likely voters.
Harris only led in 1 poll conducted in the state this week, a SoCal Strategies survey conducted between October 5 and 7, which put her in the lead by 1 point among 735 likely voters.
Georgia and North Carolina
It’s a similarily close picture in Georgia and North Carolina. In Georgia, President Biden won a surprise victory in 2020 after Trump won the state in 2016, while Trump won North Carolina in 2016 and 2020.
Trump is leading in both states, with FiveThirtyEight’s poll tracker putting him ahead by 1 point in Georgia and 0.9 points in North Carolina. Silver’s tracker puts him ahead by 0.7 points in both states.
The former president has gained 0.2 points in North Carolina in the past week, while the Democrats have gained 0.3 points in Georgia since October 4, with Trump’s lead down from 1 point.
Only one poll has given Harris the lead in North Carolina in the past week. An ActiVote survey conducted between September 7 and October 6 put her 2 points ahead, within the poll’s margin of error of +/- 4.9 percent.
Meanwhile, polls conducted by Emerson College and Fabrizio, Lee and Associates put Trump 1 point ahead.
In Georgia, things look bleaker for Harris, as no poll has given her the lead in the past week.
Instead, a Fabrizio, Lee and Associates poll put Trump in the lead by 5 points, outside the poll’s margin of error. Meanwhile, a Trafalgar Group poll conducted between October 7 and 8 put Trump in the lead by 1 point. Emerson College’s poll showed Harris and Trump were tied.
Nonetheless, Trump’s gains across the swing states have been marginal, and Silver warned readers in his newsletter not to take them too seriously.
“This is pretty minor movement and could also just reflect noise,” he wrote.
