Fantasy baseball waiver wire: David Festa, Nolan Schanuel and more adds; plus, two-start pitchers and stashes

If your current fantasy roster still even partially resembles the team you drafted, you’re likely in the minority. For the rest of us normal people, I’ll be using a data-backed, formulaic approach to discover next week’s MLB waiver wire headliners… today. Going position by position, I mine my favorite obscure fantasy baseball statistics in regard to control, batted ball quality, and swing-and-miss ability. Then I mash them all together, hopefully identifying some cheap gems to grab now before the squares figure it out next week. At the very bottom, I rank my favorite available players around the diamond, as well as two-start pitchers and speculative adds.

(Stats courtesy of Trumedia)

Starting Pitchers

As far as pitching goes, the thesis couldn’t be simpler — do our best to avoid any bias attached to surface stats (outputs) by instead focusing on underlying metrics (inputs). The most important SP skills are the ability to generate whiffs (first list below) and limit hard contact (second list below). While showing up on one of these two lists may be noise, I’m treating an appearance on both as a signal to immediately pull the trigger.

Available Starters: Multiple >30% Whiff Offerings

*(min. 15 pitches, since the All-Star Break)*

• Spencer Arrighetti, HOU — Curveball 50.0%, Sweeper 37.5%, Changeup 33.3%
• Tyler Anderson, LAA — Changeup 39.3%, Cutter 34.5%, 4-Seam Fastball 29.9%
• Bryce Elder, ATL — 4-Seam Fastball 53.3%, Slider 44.2%
• David Peterson, NYM — Changeup 50.0%, Slider 40.0%
• Roddery Munoz, MIA — Cutter 45.7%, Slider 40.0%
• David Festa, MIN — Changeup 44.8%, Slider 33.3%
• Colin Rea, MIL — Sweeper 40.9%, Cutter 31.6%
• Griffin Canning, LAA — Changeup 40.0%, Slider 31.0%
• Paul Blackburn, NYM — Changeup 38.5%, Slider 33.3%
• Austin Gomber, COL — Changeup 34.4%, Slider 31.0%
• Carlos Carrasco, CLE — Slider 34.1%, Changeup 31.3%

Available Starters: ≤.375 Expected Weighted On-Base Average, Contact-Only

*(since the All-Star Break)*

• Tyler Mahle, TEX — 0.269 xwOBAcon
• Javier Assad, CHC — 0.276 xwOBAcon
• Yariel Rodriguez, TOR — 0.287 xwOBAcon
• Randy Vasquez, SD — 0.304 xwOBAcon
• Tanner Gordon, COL — 0.309 xwOBAcon
• Martin Perez, SD — 0.318 xwOBAcon
• Dean Kremer, BAL — 0.318 xwOBAcon
• DJ Herz, WAS — 0.324 xwOBAcon
• Tyler Anderson, LAA — 0.330 xwOBAcon
• Griffin Canning, LAA — 0.331 xwOBAcon
• Paul Blackburn, NYM — 0.340 xwOBAcon

Hidden Gem: Get excited for this week’s pitching add — the way this season’s gone it may not happen again. I’ve monitored the watch list all year like clockwork for Twins rookie David Festa. The 6-foot-6 righty checks all my personal prospect boxes — sitting 95 mph with an excellent four-seam/changeup combo, propelling his MiLB career +20% K-BB rate.  Festa’s still off most fantasy radars because of the 5.55 ERA, but fear not. The vast majority of all damage came in his first two outings (#MLBIsHard), spurning rage drops across the fantasy universe. So I did what I do best — stick to my guns, buck the trend and buy the dip on what I saw as a clear overreaction. Well, Festa’s gone off in the three starts since — 14.1 IP, 1 W, 1.88 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 22 K — earning a rotation spot for a good club. He’s got the build, the stuff, the spin, and the swing-and-miss ability to make a difference down the stretch.

Available Hitters: >107 mph 90th Percentile Exit Velocity

*(min. 40 PA since the All-Star Break)*

• Matt Wallner, OF, MIN — 112.9 m.p.h. EV
• Jo Adell, OF, LAA — 109.0 m.p.h. EV
• Jhonkensy Noel, OF, CLE — 108.8 m.p.h. EV
• Romy Gonzalez, SS, BOS — 108.7 m.p.h. EV
• Adam Duvall, OF, ATL — 108.4 m.p.h. EV
• Joc Pederson, UT, ARI — 108.4 m.p.h. EV
• Jesús Sánchez, OF, MIA — 108.2 m.p.h. EV
• Brendan Rodgers, 2B, COL — 107.8 m.p.h. EV
• Rob Refsnyder, OF, BOS — 107.7 m.p.h. EV
• Michael Conforto, OF, SF — 107.5 m.p.h. EV
• Brandon Marsh, OF, PHI — 107.1 m.p.h. EV
• Wilyer Abreu, OF, BOS — 107.0 m.p.h. EV
• Tommy Pham, OF, STL — 107.0 m.p.h. EV
• Nathaniel Lowe, 1B, TEX — 106.9 m.p.h. EV

Available Hitters: <26% Chase Rate And >.390 Expected Weighted On-Base Average, Contact-Only

*(min. 40 PA since the All-Star Break)*

• Matt Wallner, OF, MIN — 25.3% Chase, 0.794 xwOBAcon
• Mitch Haniger, OF, SEA — 23.0% Chase, 0.495 xwOBAcon
• Jorge Polanco, 2B, SEA — 20.5% Chase, 0.479 xwOBAcon
• Bligh Madris, OF, DET — 22.7% Chase, 0.471 xwOBAcon
• Brandon Lowe, 2B, TB — 23.0% Chase, 0.460 xwOBAcon
• Trevor Larnach, OF, MIN — 19.1% Chase, 0.455 xwOBAcon
• Gavin Lux, 2B, LAD — 22.4% Chase, 0.454 xwOBAcon
• Nolan Schanuel, 1B, LAA — 16.6% Chase, 0.453 xwOBAcon
• Michael Busch, 1B, CHC — 21.1% Chase, 0.438 xwOBAcon
• Justyn-Henry Malloy, OF, DET — 18.3% Chase, 0.413 xwOBAcon
• JJ Bleday, OF, OAK — 25.2% Chase, 0.399 xwOBAcon
• Hunter Renfroe, OF, KC — 24.1% Chase, 0.395 xwOBAcon
• Nathaniel Lowe, 1B, TEX — 19.4% Chase, 0.391 xwOBAcon
• Andrew Benintendi, OF, CWS — 20.5% Chase, 0.390 xwOBAcon

Available Hitters: ≥17% Pulled Fly Ball/Line Drive Per Plate Appearance

*(min. 40 PA since the All-Star Break)*

• Eugenio Suárez, 3B, ARI — 28.9% Pulled FBLD
• Michael Massey, 2B, KC — 25.9% Pulled FBLD
• Jeff McNeil, 2B, NYM — 24.6% Pulled FBLD
• Andrew Benintendi, OF, CWS — 23.9% Pulled FBLD
• Brandon Lowe, 2B, TB — 22.7% Pulled FBLD
• Tyrone Taylor, OF, NYM — 21.6% Pulled FBLD
• Joc Pederson, OF, ARI — 21.3% Pulled FBLD
• Mike Yastrzemski, OF, SF — 20.3% Pulled FBLD
• Trevor Larnach, OF, MIN — 20.0% Pulled FBLD
• Andrew Vaughn, 1B, CWS — 20.0% Pulled FBLD
• Nolan Schanuel, 1B, LAA — 19.2% Pulled FBLD
• Wenceel Pérez, OF, DET — 18.9% Pulled FBLD
• Brendan Rodgers, 2B, COL — 18.8% Pulled FBLD
• JJ Bleday, OF, OAK — 18.5% Pulled FBLD
• Dominic Smith, 1B, BOS — 18.5% Pulled FBLD
• Max Kepler, OF, MIN — 18.3% Pulled FBLD
• Jorge Polanco, 2B, SEA — 18.2% Pulled FBLD
• Mickey Moniak, OF, LAA — 18.0% Pulled FBLD
• Jhonkensy Noel, OF, CLE — 17.5% Pulled FBLD

Hidden Gem: We’re entering the late stages of the fantasy season, when focusing on specific categories truly starts to matter. Over the past month, we’ve been fortunate enough to land on quite a few free agent power hitters here who stuck, like Michael Toglia, Heliot Ramos, and Eugenio Suárez. Now it’s high time to pivot toward the more boring and less sexy categories. Ratios correct slowly, and if you’re lagging in batting average, the window of opportunity to gain is closing. That said, targeting empty batting averages can do as much damage as good if that player’s not contributing elsewhere. Enter Nolan Schanuel, the Angels’ 22-year-old first basemen, who appears to be legitimately breaking out for Los Angeles.

Schanuel boasts a track record for contact, a leading indicator for BA, but let’s be honest, how much can we really know about a hitter who landed in MLB after less than 100 total minor league plate appearances, including zero in Triple-A? He’s piqued interest all season as a deep league add because of the Angels’ willingness to lead him off, the best leading indicator for run scoring. Patience appears to have been a virtue in the City of Angels, as Schanuel continues his maturation process into a constant viable threat in the batter’s box. I often point to combinations of skill changes to portend production upticks on the horizon, and that’s precisely what we’ve experienced recently. Since mid-June, Schanuel’s hard hit rate is on the rise as the ground balls plaguing his profile disappear, without sacrificing zone contact whatsoever (image below). Over his past 205 PA, the young man’s on fire — .301 BA / 27 R / 17 RBI / 4 HR / 4 SB; .421 OBP, .842 OPS, 15.7% Pulled FBLD, .399 xwOBAcon. He plays every single day, offering a chance to bolster your fantasy squad’s BA + R by way of a full complement of playing time — while chipping in with just enough of power and speed.

Relief Pitchers

Slight pivot on relievers to focus more on targeting roles over skills. If you want to go deeper into all things relievers, I strongly suggest Greg Jewett’s weekly column — nobody does RPs better.

Relievers: Saves + Holds

*(min. 5 SOLDs since the All-Star break)*

• Ryan Thompson, ARI — 8 SOLDs
• Tanner Scott, SD — 6 SOLDs
• Daniel Hudson, LAD — 6 SOLDs
• A.J. Puk, ARI — 6 SOLDs
• Tyler Rogers, SF — 6 SOLDs
• Bryan Abreu, HOU — 6 SOLDs
• Kevin Ginkel, ARI — 6 SOLDs
• Lucas Erceg, KC — 6 SOLDs
• Ryan Pressly, HOU — 5 SOLDs
• Luke Weaver, NYY — 5 SOLDs
• Anthony Banda, LAD — 5 SOLDs
• Austin Adams, OAK — 5 SOLDs
• Ryan Walker, SF — 5 SOLDs
• Calvin Faucher, MIA — 5 SOLDs
• Justin Martinez, ARI — 5 SOLDs
• Hunter Gaddis, CLE — 5 SOLDs
• Andrew Nardi, MIA — 5 SOLDs
• Ben Joyce, LAA — 5 SOLDs

Top waiver wire adds by position

Catcher

1. Keibert Ruiz, WAS — +10 teams
2. Austin Wells, NYY — 10/12 teams
3. Joey Bart, PIT — +12 teams
4. Kyle Higashioka, SD — 12/15 teams
5. Gary Sánchez, MIL — +15 teams

First Base

1. Nolan Schanuel, LAA — +10 teams
2. Michael Toglia, COL — 10/12 teams
3. Josh Bell, ARI — +12 teams
4. Ty France, CIN — +12 teams
5. Andrew Vaughn, CHW — 12/15 teams

Second Base

1. Michael Massey, KC — +10 teams
2. Jeff McNeil, NYM — 10/12 teams
3. Jorge Polanco, SEA — +12 teams
4. Brendan Rodgers, COL— 12/15 teams
5. Brandon Lowe, TB — +15 teams
6. Brooks Baldwin, CHW — +15 teams

Shortstop

*MAKE SURE JACKSON HOLLIDAY IS ROSTERED FIRST*

1. Zach Neto, LAA — +10 teams
2. José Caballero, TB — 10/12 teams
3. Brooks Lee, MIN — +12 teams
4. Geraldo Perdomo, ARI — 12/15 teams
5. Nick Sogard, BOS — +15 teams

Third Base

1. Jake Burger, MIA — +10 teams
2. Justyn-Henry Malloy, DET— 10/12 teams
3. Josh Smith, TEX — +12 teams
4. Michael Busch, CHC — +15 teams
5. Jonah Bride, MIA — +15 teams

Outfield, +10/12 Team

1. Colton Cowser, BAL
2. Heliot Ramos, SF
3. Alec Burleson, STL
4. Victor Robles, SEA
5. Parker Meadows, DET
6. Brent Rooker, OAK
7. Jesús Sánchez, MIA
8. Jhonkensy Noel, CLE
9. Bryan De La Cruz, PIT
10. Matt Wallner, MIN

Outfield, +12/15 Team

1. Wilyer Abreu, BOS
2. Pete Crow-Armstrong, CHC
3. Austin Hays, PHI
4. Michael Conforto, SF
5. Joc Pederson, ARI
6. Masataka Yoshida, BOS
7. Trevor Larnach, MIN
8. Mike Yastrzemski, SF
9. Wenceel Pérez, DET
10. Jake Meyers, HOU

Outfield, +15 Team/Only

1. Joey Loperfido, TOR
2. Jose Siri, TB
3. Matt Vierling, DET
4. Garrett Mitchell, MIL
5. Bligh Madris, DET
6. Andrew Benintendi, CHW
7. JJ Bleday, OAK
8. Dylan Moore, SEA
9. Kris Bryant, COL
10. Jerar Encarnacion, SF
11. Andrew McCutchen, PIT
12. Jake McCarthy, ARI
13. Luke Raley, SEA
14. Alex Call, WAS
15. Brandon Marsh, PHI
16. Mike Siani, STL
17. Jacob Young, WAS
18. Hunter Renfroe, KC
19. Jo Adell, LAA
20. Jake Cave, COL
21. Austin Martin, MIN
22. Alex Verdugo, NYY
23. Leody Tavares, TEX
24. Kyle Isbel, KC
25. Will Benson, CIN
26. Andy Pages, LAD
27. Miguel Andujar, OAK
28. Sal Frelick, MIL
29. Tommy Pham, STL
30. Alek Thomas, ARI
31. Adam Duvall, ATL
32. Angel Martínez, CLE
33. Kyle Stowers, MIA
34. Mickey Moniak, LAA
35. Harrison Bader, NYM
36. Mark Canha, SF
37. Connor Joe, PIT

^ — First Appearance/High-Riser

Starters

1. David Festa, MIN ^
2. Tyler Mahle, TEX ^
3. Grant Holmes, ATL ^
4. Max Meyer, MIA
5. Spencer Schwellenbach, ATL
6. Simeon Woods Richardson, MIN
7. River Ryan, LAD  ^
8. Spencer Arrighetti, HOU ^
9. Yariel Rodriguez, TOR
10. Luis L. Ortiz, PIT ^
11. Alex Cobb, CLE ^
12. Hayden Birdsong, SF
13. Tyler Phillips, PHI
14. JP Sears, OAK
15. David Peterson, NYM
16. Valente Bellozo, MIA
17. Paul Blackburn, NYM
18. Ryne Nelson, ARI
19. Joey Estes, OAK
20. José Soriano, LAA
21. Kyle Harrison, SF
22. Frankie Montas, MIL
23. Jonathan Cannon, CHW
24. Yilber Diaz, ARI
25. Griffin Canning, LAA
26. Mitch Spence, OAK
27. Mitchell Parker, WAS
28. Michael Lorenzen, KC
29. Trevor Rogers, BAL
30. James Paxton, BOS
31. Ben Lively, CLE
32. Colin Rea, MIL
33. Keider Montero, DET
34. Carson Spiers, CIN
35. Dean Kremer, BAL
36. Ryan Feltner, COL
37. Roddery Muñoz, MIA

^ — First Appearance/High-Riser

Relievers

1. Chad Green, TOR
2. Victor Vodnik, COL
3. Calvin Faucher, MIA
4. Daniel Hudson, LAD
5. Justin Martinez, ARI
6. Lucas Erceg, KC
7. Ben Joyce, LAA
8. John Brebbia, CHW
9. Tyler Holton, DET
10. Yennier Cano, BAL
11. Andrew Kittredge, STL
12. Chris Martin, BOS
13. Griffin Jax, MIN
14. Colin Poche, TB
15. Aroldis Chapman, PIT

Ranking Next Week’s Two-Start Pitchers

1. Tyler Phillips, PHI — vs. MIA (Valente Bellozo) vs. WAS (TBD)
2. Tyler Mahle, TEX — @ BOS (Kutter Crawford) vs. MIN (Pablo Lopez)
3. Paul Blackburn, NYM — vs. OAK (Ross Stripling) vs. MIA (Max Meyer)
4. Frankie Montas, MIL — vs. LAD (Gavin Stone) vs. CLE (Ben Lively)
5. Trevor Rogers, BAL — vs. WAS (Jake Irvin) vs. PHI (Nick Pivetta)
6. Jonathan Cannon, CHW — vs. NYY (Luis Gil) @ HOU (Hunter Brown)
7. Kyle Hendricks, CHC — @ CLE (Ben Lively) vs. TOR (Bowden Francis)
8. Davis Daniel, LAA — vs. TOR (Bowden Francis) vs. ATL (Charlie Morton)
9. Marco Gonzales, PIT — @ SD (Michael King) vs. SEA (George Kirby)
10. Ryan Feltner, COL — @ ARI (Brandon Pfaadt) vs. SD (Michael King)
11. Bowden Francis, TOR — @ LAA (Davis Daniel) @ CHC (Kyle Hendricks)
12. Davis Martin, CHW — vs. NYY (TBD) @ HOU (Framber Valdez)
13. Jose Ureña, TEX — @ BOS (Nick Pivetta) vs. MIN (Joe Ryan)

Thanks so much for reading — the comments, feedback and overall response to the article have bordered on overwhelming. Please feel free to let my bosses know how I’m doing below with any comments or questions. Make sure to follow me on X @JohnLaghezza for a link to my brand new best-selling Substack page for all the fantasy, betting, and DFS data you can stomach.

(Top photo of Nolan Schanuel: Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)