A disturbance in the Caribbean Sea is expected to strengthen into a hurricane that will take aim at Florida midweek.
The system, which for now is known as Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 but would become Helene if it’s upgraded to a storm, on Monday afternoon was about 110 miles south-southwest of Grand Cayman with maximum sustained winds of 30 mph and higher gusts, according to the National Hurricane Center. It’s moving north at 6 mph.
A turn toward the northwest is expected Tuesday followed by an acceleration in speed toward the northeast on Wednesday and Thursday, the hurricane center said.
“On the forecast track, the center of the system is forecast to move across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico during the next couple of days,” the hurricane center said in an update Monday afternoon.
The disturbance is forecast to become a hurricane Wednesday and continue to strengthen as it moves through the eastern Gulf of Mexico. A tropical storm is defined as having winds of 39 mph or higher, and a hurricane of 74 mph or higher, according to the National Weather Service.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency in 41 counties Monday ahead of the potential storm’s “significant threat” of heavy rainfall, flooding, storm surge and damaging winds” to the state’s Gulf coast.
This potential storm may bring 4 to 12 inches of rain to western Cuba and the Cayman Islands and 2 to 6 inches to the eastern Yucatán Peninsula, carrying with it a risk of flash and urban flooding, the hurricane center said.
“Heavy rainfall will spread into the Southeast U.S. starting on Wednesday and continuing through Friday, bringing a risk of flash and river flooding,” the center said.
Around 2 to 4 feet of storm surge is expected along the southern coast of Pinar del Río in western Cuba and the east coast of the Yucatán Peninsula.
In Florida, sandbags are being distributed to residents in Tallahassee and Gulfport ahead of potential flooding.
A hurricane watch has been issued for Cabo Catoche in Tulum and for Pinar del Río. A tropical storm warning is in effect in Rio Lagartos in Tulum and Cuba’s Artemisa, Pinar del Río and the Isle of Youth, or Isla de la Juventud.
If the disturbance is upgraded to a storm, it will be named Helene.
