The 12-team College Football Playoff era is here, and it’s certainly changed the regular season outlook. After five weeks of play, countless teams are still very much alive for a bid.
And ESPN college football analyst Greg McElroy has a bead on what the 12-team field would be right now, sharing his projection ahead of Week 6. All told, McElroy had four teams each from the SEC and Big Ten, two from the ACC, and one each from the Big 12 and Group of 5.
See his full 12-team playoff projection below.
1. Alabama
It’s easy to be bullish on Alabama after the Kalen DeBoer-led squad bested Georgia in Week 5. And McElroy — an alum of the program — doesn’t see a ton stopping his alma mater from making it to the College Football Playoff with the top seed.
“That win against Georgia was enormous,” McElroy said.
2. Ohio State
Ohio State might have the most talented roster, top to bottom, in college football. So far, the only question is just how good Ohio State really is, as the Buckeyes have yet to face a true challenge.
Even still, McElroy doesn’t see much standing in the way of Ohio State making the CFP as the Big Ten champion and securing the top see. The most difficult challenge is a road game at Oregon in Week 7.
3. Miami
Miami has flashed plenty of upside to start the season, especially with upgrades under center. And McElroy thinks this team has the goods to make a run to win the ACC. One of the big reasons he thinks this, he said, is that Miami seems to have stopped the self-inflicted issues.
“They are winners of the ACC, they are the third overall seed,” McElroy said.
4. Iowa State
It wasn’t a popular preseason pick, but with Iowa State undefeated, McElroy picked them as the Big 12 champion and likely No. 4 seed. McElroy opted for the Cyclones over also undefeated BYU, among others in the league. McElroy readily admitted, though, a number of other teams in the league could elbow their way in.
“I have no idea how this thing is going to play out,” McElroy said. “… I don’t feel great handicapping many of these teams.”
5. Texas
Texas might be a pick to finish No. 1 for some, and that’s certainly in play. But McElroy ultimately thinks the Crimson Tide will sneak past the Longhorns for the SEC title and the top seed.
“At worst, based on what they’ve done and what they have remaining, it’s hard for me to envision Texas any worse than 10-2,” McElroy said.
6. Tennessee
Few teams have looked as complete as Tennessee through five weeks. And McElroy doesn’t see much stopping Tennessee from making the field, or contending for the No. 1 seed.
Tennessee still has to face Alabama, among others. But with how stout the Volunteers defense look, and how explosive the offense can be at its best, they’re likely a strong contender to be in the CFP come December.
7. Oregon
McElroy, while picking Oregon to finish on the wrong side of Ohio State in the Big Ten title race, still thinks Oregon makes the CFP. Outside of the matchup against the Buckeyes in the regular season, there’s not a ton standing in Oregon’s way to finishing in the Top 10 and earning an at-large bid.
“They lose that one, still very much alive,” McElroy said of the Oregon-Ohio State matchup.
8. USC
USC had a hiccup against Michigan in Week 4 but bounced right back with an impressive, come-from-behind win over Wisconsin. And the Trojans showed some real mettle in the trenches that could serve them as Big Ten play progresses.
And with Penn State the only currently ranked team that USC is still to face, the path to getting into the field seems rather straightforward.
9. Georgia
The Bulldogs suffered a setback in Week 5 with the loss to Alabama, but a path to the College Football Playoff is still present. It just won’t be an easy one.
Even still, McElroy thinks the Bulldogs can survive a gauntlet that includes games against Texas, Ole Miss and Tennessee. And if Georgia emerges from this slate around 10-2 or 11-1, the Bulldogs are likely CFP entrants.
10. Penn State
The Nittany Lions have looked strong in stretches to start 2024, especially with some more explosion on offense. And the defense appears to be quite feisty, still. And that recipe, McElroy thinks, will be enough to get Penn State in as a fourth Big Ten representative.
“They are at worst, with that schedule, a 10-2 football team,” McElroy said.
11. Clemson
It would’ve been hard to imagine, after Week 1, that Clemson could be a playoff team. But since getting shoved in a locker by Georgia, the Tigers have torn through the competition. Miami excluded, no team in the ACC has been hotter.
And that’s what this consideration ultimately came down to for McElroy: There’s not much standing in the way for Clemson to make the ACC title game with the one loss.
12. Boise State
A Group of 5 team is going to make the field, and right now Boise State seems poised to finish the year as the highest-ranked team among that pool of teams. So far, the Broncos are 3-1 with the only loss coming on the road, by 3, to Oregon.
If the Broncos stay on their current course, there’s little reason it wouldn’t be Boise State making the field for the Group of 5.
While McElroy likely has a number of teams correctly in the field with this 12-team College Football Playoff projection, it’s also almost certain that the rest of the college football season will shuffle these standings, repeatedly, before the field is set.
