Week 6 of the college football season is here. Houston plays TCU, and Heartland College Sports has your game prediction, preview, and betting odds ahead of the matchup.
GAME INFO
Friday, October 4; 6:30 p.m. (CT); Amon G. Carter Stadium; Fort Worth, TX
TV: ESPN
Records: TCU 3-2 (Big 12: 1-1); Houston 1-4 (Big 12: 0-2)
Last Week: TCU 38, Kansas 27; Iowa State 20, Houston 0
Series History: Series tied, 13-13-0
Last Meeting: TCU 36, Houston 13 (2023)
Fun Fact: TCU has won the last nine meetings in this series. Houston’s last victory over TCU was a 49-46 win over the Horned Frogs in 1992.
TCU vs. Houston Betting Lines and Odds
Opening Line: TCU (-17)
Over/Under: 49.5
Key Players
Houston Cougars
QB Donovan Smith
The Houston offense has been underwhelming — to say the very least — this season, but the one player worth noting is quarterback Donovan Smith. With prototypical size and above-average athleticism, Smith is a guy who will likely end up on an NFL roster when his time in college is over. Unfortunately for the Cougars, there aren’t many pieces around him to build with, and it shows up on the stat sheet: 70-107 (65.4%), 681 yards, 2 TD, 5 INT, 12 sacks, 78 rushing yards, 2 TD.
S A.J. Haulcy
Houston’s identity has been on defense in 2024, and among the best players on that side of the ball has been safety A.J. Haulcy. Through the first five games, Haulcy leads the Cougars in solo tackles (17) and ranks second on the team with 33 stops. Haulcy also leads the team with four passes defended and has one of the Coogs’ three interceptions on the year.
TCU Horned Frogs
QB Josh Hoover
Through the first five weeks of the season, there haven’t been many quarterbacks who’ve been able to best what Josh Hoover has done through the air. The sophomore ranks third nationally with 1,774 passing yards and fourth nationally in passing touchdowns with 14. Hoover is completing 69.8% of his attempts — of which he has about 40 a game — and has four interceptions on the year. The TCU offense runs through Hoover’s arm; to this point, it’s been a top-25 unit in the country.
LB Namdi Obiazor
After leading TCU with 84 tackles and 4.0 sacks last season, linebacker Namdi Obiazor has picked up right where he left off last season. He ranks third on the team with 27 tackles and leads the team with 4.0 tackles for loss and 1.5 sacks. Against a struggling Houston offense, Obaizor will be responsible for keeping Donovan Smith under wraps.
KEY STORYLINES
Houston Cougars
Can Houston find any form of offense? Through the first five games of the 2024 season, Houston’s defense has played pretty good football. The Cougars rank 27th in total defense (294.2 ypg) and 48th in scoring defense (20.8 ppg). Unfortunately, their offense just hasn’t held up their end of the bargain, ranking 133rd out of 133 teams with 10.4 points per game and 124th in total offense (285.0 ypg).
TCU Horned Frogs
Can TCU take care of business? In future matchups, this might be a game worth keeping an eye on in the grand scheme of the Big 12 race. In 2024, though, it should be a fairly one-sided affair. However, TCU has got to go and take care of business, and Willie Fritz’s team doesn’t have the pieces to score with the Horned Frogs this season, he does have a long track record of dragging teams down into the mud and beating them with less talent. If TCU sleep walks into this one, anything can happen.
PREDICTION: TCU 34, Houston 17
If Sonny Dykes’ group can start fast in this game, there’s no reason why it shouldn’t be in hand by the end of the third quarter. Houston’s defense provides a stiff enough challenge that Josh Hoover and Co. might have to work a little harder to put points on the board like they want to, but at the end of the day, they shouldn’t have to score more than a few times to win this game comfortably. I’ll say the Frogs get out to something like a 28-3 lead and then coast, with Houston threatening to cover the points near the end of the game.
