With three weeks to go until Election Day, Kamala Harris is leading Donald Trump in the 2024 polls nationally, while the vital swing states are still too close to call.
The race between Vice President Harris and former President Trump remains neck-and-neck in the final few weeks of the campaign, with polling aggregators showing Trump cutting into Harris’ overall lead.
In terms of the seven battleground states that could determine who wins the 2024 race, Harris and Trump remain essentially tied, with no candidates beating the other by more than 2 points in any aggregator’s average.
Harris’ clearest path to victory in November would be to win the three blue wall battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, barring any shock results elsewhere. Trump’s most efficient path to 270 Electoral College votes would be to win the Sun Belt swing states of North Carolina and Georgia and flip Pennsylvania.
Newsweek reached out to the Trump and Harris campaigns via email for comment.
National Averages
Harris’ current national lead over Trump is 2.4 points (48.5 percent to 46.1), according to polling aggregator and forecaster 538.
This is a 0.2 points decrease from the 2.6 lead Harris national lead over Trump had on October 8.
Pollster Nate Silver, who founded 538 and now uses a similar forecast model, gives Harris a larger national average poll lead over Trump of 2.8 points (49.3 percent to 46.5 percent) in his most recent update. Silver’s model also shows that Trump’s numbers have improved by 0.2 points compared to last week.
The national average from RealClearPolitics, which tends to favor Republican polling groups, has Harris leading by 1.7 points (48.9 percent to 47.2 percent).
On October 8, RealClearPolitics’ average poll results had Harris with a 2-point lead over Trump.
The forecast model from Decision Desk HQ/The Hill currently gives Harris a 51 percent chance of winning the election overall, describing the race as exceptionally close.
Swing States
According to 538, Harris is currently 0.6 points ahead in Wisconsin, 0.7 points ahead in Pennsylvania, 0.8 points ahead in Michigan and 0.6 points ahead in Nevada. Trump is ahead in the final three battleground states of North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona by 0.9 points, 1 point, and 1.8 points, respectively.
Harris is forecast to win the election with 276 Electoral College votes under 538’s current forecast, barring any shock results elsewhere.
Silver also has Harris ahead in the three blue wall states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin by 0.8 points, 1.1 points and 1.1 points, respectively, as well as 0.8 points in Nevada.
Silver has Trump beating Harris on average in North Carolina (plus 0.7 points), Georgia (plus 0.8 points) and Arizona (plus 0.6 points).
RealClearPolitics’ swing state polling differs. It has Trump narrowly ahead of Harris in six of the seven main battleground states.
Trump is ahead in Arizona by 1 point, Nevada by 0.2 points, Michigan by 0.9, Pennsylvania by 0.1 points, North Carolina by 0.5 and Georgia by 0.5 points.
Wisconsin is the only state where Harris beats Trump in RealClearPolitics’ averages, defeating the Republican by 0.3 points. In this scenario, Trump would win the Electoral College count by 302 votes to Harris’ 236.
Recent Polling
A CBS News/YouGov national survey of 2,719 registered voters shows Harris with a 3-point lead over Trump (51 percent to 48).
Harris’ lead is reduced to 1 point overall (50 percent to 49) when broken down to just the battleground states.
The survey was conducted between October 8 and 11, and the results have a margin of error of +/- 2.3 percentage points.
An ABC News/Ipsos poll of 1,714 likely voters conducted between October 4 and 8 showed Harris with 50 percent support compared to Trump’s 48 percent. The results have a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percentage points.
Elsewhere, an Ativote poll of 1,000 likely voters revealed Trump with a 1-point lead over Harris (50 percent to 49). The survey was conducted October 3-8 and had a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.
