I still haven’t recovered from the New York Jets losing to the Buffalo Bills last night, which capped off a pretty poor week. Losing by the hook twice in one week is never fun. The risk play on the New England Patriots didn’t pan out. Although, if you would have told me they scored 21 points, I would have felt pretty good. The Commanders and Jets were right there so those weren’t total whiffs, but we can bounce back this week.
Last week’s record: 0-3, -2.70 units
Season record: 12-16-2, -3.95 units, -12.5% ROI
I have four plays to start this week and maybe another gets added as we get some injury clarity. There are two games specifically that I’m waiting on injury reports before getting involved. As always, shop around for the best price. Best of luck!
Free, daily NFL updates direct to your inbox.
Free, daily NFL updates direct to your inbox.
Sign Up
Best bets for NFL Week 7
All plays are to win one unit on favorites and risk one unit on underdogs. I’m also sharing a “worst price to bet,” which is the last number that I would bet before the game no longer has enough value to make a bet. All odds are from BetMGM.
Seattle Seahawks +3 (-110) at Atlanta Falcons
The Seahawks have played a brutal schedule the last few weeks and I think the market is a little low on them this week. Sure, the front seven of Seattle has been banged up — hopefully we get some good news there — but are we sure Atlanta is deserving a laying a field goal here? Atlanta cannot generate pressure which bodes well for this Seahawks offense. This is a typical buy-low on the Seahawks and sell-high on the Falcons because of the last few weeks.
- Worst price to bet: Seahawks +3 (-110)
Kansas City Chiefs moneyline (+105) at San Francisco 49ers
Kansas City Chiefs at San Francisco 49ers under 47.5 (-110)
Am I a little scared to be betting against both of these offenses? Of course. But I think the Chiefs defense can slow down the 49ers rushing attack which puts a ton of pressure on Brock Purdy. Purdy is great, don’t get me wrong, but I do wonder if the offense has been boosted by quality of opponent this year. Playing the Rams, Patriots, Cardinals and Seahawks over the last month makes me think that they might be a little overrated.
As for who is supposed to win? Well, Patrick Mahomes as an underdog is always a fun time.
- Worst price to bet: Chiefs moneyline +105
- Worst price to bet: Under 47.5 (-110)
Baltimore Ravens at Tampa Bay Buccaneers over 48.5 (-110)
Please shop around as there are a couple spots with better prices — one that is quite a bit off — but I won’t be grading at that price because it’s not widely available. I’m not sure the market has quite caught up to how good the Ravens offense is. Lamar Jackson is playing a step above his MVP-level season last year and the Ravens are just marching up and down the field. On the other side of the ball, Baker Mayfield is playing quite well himself and has a decent matchup against a Ravens defense that’s exploitable through the air.
- Worst price to bet: Over 49 (-110)
(Photo of Patrick Mahomes: Jamie Squire / Getty Images)
