Caleb Williams and the Bears are favored by 4.5 points in the Week 1 NFL odds over the Titans. However, over the last 20 years, quarterbacks drafted first overall are winless (0-14-1) in their first career starts in the NFL. You have to go back to David Carr in 2002 to find the last top-picked quarterback to win in his league debut. With Williams battling the Titans’ defense and history, should you trust Tennessee with your Week 1 NFL picks? Tennessee brought in several new faces, including Calvin Ridley, Tony Pollard, L’Jarius Sneed and Jamal Adams. Facing a debuting No. 1 overall pick also provides extra motivation for the opposing defense, which has undoubtedly played a part in that 0-14-1 record as you assess the latest NFL spreads. All of the Week 1 NFL lines are listed below, and SportsLine’s advanced computer model has all the NFL betting advice and NFL predictions you need to make the best Week 1 NFL picks now.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on A-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 185-129 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 39-21 roll on A-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of the 2022 NFL season.
The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 1 NFL odds and NFL betting lines on the spread, money line, and over-under, and locked in picks for every NFL matchup. Head here to see every pick.
Top Week 1 NFL predictions
We can tell you one of the model’s strongest Week 1 NFL picks is that the Chargers (-3.5) cover the spread at home versus the Raiders. Las Vegas had one of the worst offenses in the league last year, ranking in the bottom 10 in the six major categories of points, yards, passing offense, running offense, third-down conversions and redzone scoring. Davante Adams had his lowest numbers since 2019, and while some may attribute that to the Raiders’ QB situation, Adams’ career-high of eight drops falls on him.
The team then lost 2022 rushing champ Josh Jacobs, and his replacement would appear to be Zamir White, who has scored just one touchdown as he enters his third NFL season. Meanwhile, the Chargers improved at the most important spot — head coach — with the hiring of Jim Harbaugh. Not only is he coming off a college national championship, but his .695 winning percentage as an NFL coach is the fifth-best in league history (min. 50 games). The model sees L.A. prevailing by at least a touchdown and covering as 3.5-point favorites nearly 60% of the time. See which other teams to pick here.
Another one of its Week 1 NFL predictions: the Bills (-6) cover at home versus the Cardinals. Josh Allen simply takes his game to another level when in front of Bills Mafia as last season he had 25 total touchdowns versus eight turnovers at home compared to 19 TDs and 14 TOs on the road. His legs will also be a huge asset in this game as the Cardinals allowed the eighth-most rushing yards and sixth-most rushing TDs to opposing quarterbacks last season.
Kyler Murray’s legs could cause the Bills problems as well, but his arm may lose potency against Buffalo’s pass defense. The Bills allowed the second-fewest pass TDs (18) in 2023 while intercepting the third-most passes (18). They were one of just three teams to not allow more passing TDs than INTs, and the Bills also ranked fourth in the league in getting to the quarterback (54 sacks). With Buffalo’s huge advantage on defense, the Bills (-6.5) cover in nearly 70% of simulations. See which other teams to pick here.
How to make Week 1 NFL picks
The model has also made the call on who wins and covers in every other game on the Week 1 NFL schedule and just revealed four teams that win outright over 70% of the time. You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine.
So what NFL picks can you make with confidence, and which four favorites should you lock in now? Check out the latest NFL odds below, then visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned well over $7,000, and find out.
Week 1 NFL betting odds, lines, spreads
Get Week 1 NFL picks at SportsLine
Thursday, Sept. 5
Ravens at Chiefs (-3, 46.5)
Friday, Sept. 6
Packers vs. Eagles (-2.5, 48.5) — in Brazil
Sunday, Sept. 8
Steelers at Falcons (-3, 40.5)
Cardinals at Bills (-6, 48)
Titans at Bears (-4.5, 45)
Patriots at Bengals (-9.5, 40.5)
Texans at Colts (+2.5, 48.5)
Jaguars at Dolphins (-3, 49.5)
Panthers at Saints (-4, 40)
Vikings at Giants (+1, 41.5)
Raiders at Chargers (-3.5, 42.5)
Broncos at Seahawks (-5.5, 42)
Cowboys at Browns (-2.5, 42.5)
Commanders at Buccaneers (-3.5, 42.5)
Rams at Lions (-3.5, 51)
Monday, Sept. 9
Jets at 49ers (-3.5, 44)
