Wednesday briefing: What Iran’s attack on Israel means for the Middle East

Good morning.

Iran launched a wave of ballistic missiles at Israel on Tuesday evening in retaliation for a series of attacks against its proxies. Officials in Tehran cited the assassinations of top Hezbollah and Hamas commanders – including Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, who was killed on Friday – and the Israeli invasion of Lebanon.

It is Iran’s second attack on Israel this year, although this one is widely considered to have been more aggressive and is likely to be more consequential.

Guardian reporters in Jerusalem witnessed dozens of missiles darting through the sky towards the country’s coastal cities. Most of the missiles were intercepted by Israel’s air defences, supported by western allies, but there have been multiple images of craters in central and southern Israel.

Two people have reportedly been wounded in Tel Aviv. Elsewhere, the only reported fatality was Sameh al-Asali, a 37-year-old Palestinian from Gaza living in the occupied West Bank, who was killed by falling shrapnel.

Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, said Iran has “made a big mistake tonight, and will pay for it”, although US officials have said that Israel has not made a decision yet on the scope or timeframe of this reprisal.

Meanwhile, overnight, the Israeli military continued to pound Lebanon’s capital, Beirut, with at least five strikes hitting the city’s southern suburbs.

Today’s newsletter takes you through the last 24 hours in the Middle East, as the crisis intensifies. That’s right after the headlines.

Five big stories

1. US election | JD Vance refused to say whether Donald Trump lost the 2020 election and sidestepped questions over whether he would certify a Trump loss this autumn, bringing out sharp attacks by his Democratic opponent, Tim Walz, during the vice-presidential debate last night.

2. Surveillance | UK government ministers have been warned not to resurrect Conservative plans to tackle welfare fraud by launching mass algorithmic surveillance of bank accounts. Rights and privacy groups fear the government is poised to deliver a “snooper’s charter” using automation and possibly AI to crack down on benefit cheating and mistakes that cost £10bn a year.

3. UK news | A 14-year-old girl was left with potentially life-changing injuries while a 16-year-old boy was in hospital after a substance – believed to be acidic – was thrown at them by a male who approached them on the street outside their London school, police have said.

4. Lucy Letby | A senior doctor said he was “ashamed” he failed to stop the nurse Lucy Letby from harming babies and that police should have been contacted a year earlier. John Gibbs told a public inquiry that doctors received “very firm pushback” from senior nurses when they raised growing suspicions about Letby in early 2016.

5. Space | A comet that has not been seen from Earth since Neanderthals were alive has reappeared in the sky, with astronomers saying it might be visible to the naked eye.

In depth: Israel readies for reprisal as ‘forces of restraint’ weaken

Iran’s surprise attack lasted for just under an hour and came after its supreme national security council (SNSC) chair, Ali Akbar Ahmadian, declared that Iran was at war. Around 180 ballistic missiles were launched, just hours after the US warned that Iran was preparing an imminent attack.

To bolster Israel’s defence, US forces shot down Iranian missiles. President Joe Biden later said that the attack appears to have been “defeated and ineffective”, and Israel said that most of the missiles were intercepted.

Iranian officials, however, announced that 90% of its missiles successfully hit their targets. The extent of the damage caused by the missiles remains unclear.

The order to launch the strike was made by Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, with the backing of the SNSC and the Iranian defence ministry. Iran has said the attack was a “legal, rational and legitimate response to the terrorist attacks of the Zionist regime”.

This attack is far more aggressive than Iran’s one in April, which was largely considered a symbolic strike. Iran gave several days’ notice then and the main target was a military base in the underpopulated Negev desert. This time, the missiles themselves seem to be much faster and the targets appear to have included dense cities.

The Guardian’s defence and security editor Dan Sabbagh has useful insight into Iran’s military strategy now: “Firing so many ballistic missiles in a few minutes also represents a serious effort to overwhelm or exhaust Israel’s air defences. Because they are sophisticated, the interceptor missiles are expensive – and their stocks uncertain,” he writes.

Why did Iran do this?

In late September, Iran’s president, Masoud Pezeshkian, insisted that the country does not “wish to be the cause of instability in the region.” It seems the impending threat of war has lost its deterrent power, with the spokesperson of the parliament’s national security and foreign policy commission saying that Iran is “not afraid of going to war. We are not warmongers, but we are ready for any war.”

Iran’s risky and unprecedented retaliation “reflects a growing consensus inside the Iranian elite that its decision not to mount a military reprisal after the assassination of [Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh] in Tehran in July was a strategic mistake”, Patrick Wintour writes.

The perceived inaction has led to a growing frustration among some hardliners in Iran that Tehran has become “passive” in the face of Israeli aggression. Instead of placating Israel, they say, it has emboldened Netanyahu to mount further attacks and has weakened its image as the leader of the “axis of resistance”.

Iran held off from ordering a reprisal for the assassination of Haniyeh, who was killed in Tehran in July, because of US assurances that a ceasefire deal in Gaza was imminent and restraint from Iran would be key in making sure it happens. (Israel has not claimed responsibility for Haniyeh’s death). No such deal materialised. Early last month, Pezeshkian accused the US of lying, adding that Israel’s actions would not go “unanswered”.

Iranian officials were also alarmed by Netanyahu’s announcement last weekend that Israel’s latest actions are steps towards changing “the balance of power in the region for years to come”. To show restraint after the series of escalations would, they believed, put them in an even weaker strategic position.

What’s next?

Leaders across Europe condemned Iran’s attack and the UK prime minister Keir Starmer said that Britain stands with Israel and recognises “her right to self-defence in the face of this aggression”.

The UN secretary general, António Guterres, condemned “escalation after escalation” in the region. “This must stop. We absolutely need a ceasefire,” he said.

Israel has already launched attacks in Yemen, Lebanon and Syria this week, indicating its willingness to keep fighting on all fronts. Analysts have noted that Israel has a much freer hand to respond more comprehensively and aggressively. What little “forces of restraint” there were in the Middle East are “weakening with every passing day,” Julian Borger writes in his analysis. “Politically speaking, the Biden administration cannot be seen as tying Israel’s hands in the face of an Iranian attack on Israeli cities.”

The looming fear of this deepening conflict has been a direct confrontation between Tehran and Washington, which gets closer with each attack.

As Israel readies for a reprisal and Iran’s leadership vows that any retaliation would be met with a “more crushing and ruinous” response, the cries for peace continue to go unheeded.

For the latest news on the region, follow the Guardian’s liveblog.

What else we’ve been reading

• Barbara Walker has created beautiful, ceiling-to-floor sized charcoal portraits of victims of the Windrush scandal, which will go on show this week at the Whitworth in Manchester. Amelia Gentleman spoke to her about the physical and emotional toll of making – and then destroying – her political, personal art. Jason Okundaye, assistant editor, newsletters

• The Guardian’s foremost expert on gambling (and author of the excellent book Jackpot), Rob Davies, has profiled Denise Coates. The Bet365 mastermind is Britain’s richest woman but, asks Rob, what’s the human cost of her mammoth fortune? Hannah J Davies, deputy editor, newsletters

• Some men went to a (cancelled) Last Dinner Party show in Lincoln and felt they were profiled by security and treated like “perverts”. Laura Snapes is brilliant and balanced on the state of high alert that women and minority fans are often put in when attending gigs. Jason

• George Monbiot is on top form as he questions why Just Stop Oil protesters were handed such long sentences for throwing soup at a Van Gogh (or rather, at the protective glass in front of it). Hannah

• Collagen peptides, dandelion root, vitamin C, creatine, magnesium – will the cult of self-optimisation through supplements ever end? Joel Snape takes on the latest craze, electrolytes, and what they mean for your kidneys – and your bank account. Jason

Sport

Football | First-half goals from Kai Havertz and Bukayo Saka gave Arsenal a 2-0 win over PSG in the Champions League group stage. Manchester City claimed a regulation 4-0 win against Slovan Bratislava with James McAtee scoring his first goal for the club.

Formula One | Red Bull team principal Christian Horner has indicated Liam Lawson has an opportunity to make his case to replace Sergio Pérez and line up alongside Max Verstappen for the team, potentially as early as next season.

Tennis| Third-ranked Carlos Alcaraz’s athleticism was again on show as he advanced to the men’s final of the China Open, with a 7-5, 6-3 victory over Daniil Medvedev on Tuesday.

The front pages

“Israel vows to retaliate after Iran launches missile attack” says the Guardian’s splash headline this morning. “Middle East erupts” – that’s the Times while the Daily Express has “US threatens ‘severe’ response as Iran attacks Israel”. “Revenge from above” says the Mirror describing it further as Iran’s retaliation for Israel’s incursion into Lebanon. A dramatic front page of the Daily Mail says “The Iron Dome holds firm against Iran’s 200-missile blitz … now Israel vows vengeance”. The Telegraph says simply “Iran attacks Israel” while the i leads with “Iran missile attack on Israel sparks fears of new war”. Business coverage is displaced on the Financial Times’ front in favour of “Iran fires missile barrage against Israel”. The Metro calls it “Iran’s new blitz at Israel”.

Today in Focus

Who were England’s 2024 rioters?

Racist chants rang out, and homes, businesses and hotels housing asylum seekers were attacked – for a week this summer English towns and cities seemed on the brink of chaos. Josh Halliday reports on what we know so far about the people at the centre of the violence

Cartoon of the day | Martin Rowson

The Upside

A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad

Communal eating is on the menu in the culinary hotspot of Copenhagen, where pulling up a chair alongside strangers is now all the rage, as Shanna McGoldrick writes. At Absalon, a church turned community centre, McGoldrick sampled tomato and lentil soup and fried potatoes in a creamy fennel and chive sauce, as well as breaking bread – quite literally – with a group of Danish nurses, all for the affordable price of 60DKK (about £6.75). “All around us, people are chatting in English and Danish, and though everyone looks very at ease, I’m fairly sure we’re not the only tourists here,” writes McGoldrick of the fællesspisning dinner. “It’s a pragmatic kind of welcome, with all diners expected to get stuck in: at the end of the meal, we all stack our plates neatly and file happily back over to the kitchen.” Adds Ivonne Christensen, one of the nurses: “It’s a wonderful idea … you don’t have to cook, you can come here when you’re tired; it’s easy.”

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