While No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams will make his NFL debut at home versus a team coming off a 6-11 record, his rookie quarterback colleagues aren’t as fortunate. The Week 1 NFL schedule has Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix both going on the road to face teams coming off winning records last season. Given the tough environments they will face in their debuts, should you fade the Commanders and the Broncos in your Week 1 NFL parlay picks?
Washington is a 3-point underdog to Tampa, according to the Week 1 NFL odds, while Denver is a 5-point underdog to Seattle. Meanwhile, Williams and the Bears are 4.5-point favorites at home against the Titans. Should your NFL parlay only include fading the teams of Daniels and Nix, or should it also include backing Williams and Chicago? Before you make any Week 1 NFL picks or NFL parlays, be sure to see what SportsLine senior analyst Larry Hartstein has to say.
A former lead writer for Covers and The Linemakers, Hartstein combines a vast network of Vegas sources with an analytical approach he honed working for Pro Football Focus. He tied for 52nd place (out of 1,598 entries) in the 2022 Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest, going 53-34-3 ATS. Hartstein’s weekly Vegas contest selections form the basis of his NFL best bets column, which is 79-48-2 (62.2%, +25.95 units) since its inception in 2022. Anyone who has followed him is way up.
For Week 1, Hartstein has locked in three confident best bets. If you successfully parlay his picks, you’re looking at a payout of almost 6-1. You can only see Hartstein’s Week 1 NFL picks at SportsLine.
Top Week 1 NFL picks
We can tell you Hartstein loves the Browns (-2.5) to cover against the Cowboys in a 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff on Sunday, Sep. 8. All of the betting trends drastically favor Cleveland at home in this matchup. Last year, the Browns were 6-0 against the spread as home favorites, making them the only team to go undefeated versus the spread as home favorites. Meanwhile, the Cowboys vastly underperformed versus the line when going on the road. The Cowboys went 0-4 ATS as road underdogs, making them one of two teams to not pick up a single spread victory as a road dog.
Cleveland led the NFL in total defense last season, and the offense can only improve after having the most turnovers a year ago. Jerry Jeudy, who was miscast as a No. 1 receiver in Denver, now gets to operate as a No. 2 behind Amari Cooper, who will undoubtedly have revenge on his mind in his first game versus his former team. Dallas could only muster 16 points in its Wild Card loss to Green Bay last year — before getting some garbage time TDs — and Hartstein expects it to struggle on offense against an even better defense in Cleveland. “Back the Browns, who went 8-1 at home last season, to cover in a low-scoring opener,” Hartstein told SportsLine. See which other NFL parlay picks to make here.
How to make Week 1 NFL parlays
Hartstein also jumped on two other NFL matchups, including backing one team who he says is “poised for greatness.” You can only see Hartstein’s Week 1 NFL best bets and parlay at SportsLine.
What are Hartstein’s top Week 1 NFL picks, and which other NFL matchups should you target for a strong 6-1 payout? Visit SportsLine now to see the Week 1 NFL best bets from the Vegas expert who is up 25.95 units on ATS picks since 2022, and find out.
