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Last night, Baltimore cruised as the Bucs took major injury damage (more below), while the Cardinals gave the Chargers a very Chargers loss.
Now, to celebrate 2024 as the unofficial return of the running back, today’s newsletter starts with the engine of the offense, before we get to Tua Tagovailoa’s return and significant receiver news:
Fantasy Reset: Week 8 waivers, buys and sells
Hopefully you survived Week 7’s injury spree, which ended last night with Buccaneers WR Chris Godwin — the highest-scoring receiver entering the week — suffering an ankle injury likely to cost him the season.
At least we can fall back on fantasy football. With everyone hurting, this morning is the perfect time to push for a title (or save your season). First, make a claim for 49ers WRs Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall.
My must-add running backs before Week 8, if Tyrone Tracy and Alexander Mattison are unavailable:
No. 1: Falcons RB Tyler Allgeier. If Bijan Robinson ever sits, Allgeier vaults into must-start territory. He’s also playable in blowouts, as he took 18 carries for 105 yards and a touchdown in a Week 6 win against the Panthers. He’s the top handcuff to stash.
No. 2: Bills RB Ray Davis. Starter James Cook has impressed, but Davis earned himself a bigger role after posting 8.2 yards per carry against the Titans’ stout front a week after taking 23 touches for 152 yards. At 5-8, 220 pounds, he has the bellcow, 20-touch build that Cook lacks (at 5-11, 190 pounds) and should at least dominate goal-line touches.
No. 3: Colts RB Tyler Goodson. Initially the third-string runner, he’s used his explosiveness to average 5.9 yards per carry with Jonathan Taylor out. He capitalized on Trey Sermon’s ineffectiveness (2.8 YPC) to vault into the primary role whenever Taylor — who is yet to practice — misses time. Add him, and you might’ve found a new starter in Week 8.
No. 4: Cardinals RB Trey Benson was made the team’s third-round pick to succeed James Conner, and he’ll step up if the starter misses time (Conner’s missed at least one game in each of his seven previous seasons). Benson took five carries for 26 yards in Week 6 but saw zero touches last night.
Deeper leagues:
- Chargers RB Kimani Vidal reminds many of Austin Ekeler and should beat out Gus Edwards for the RB2 role when Edwards is healthy. Jaguars RB D’Ernest Johnson is the team’s preferred runner for negative game script (when trailing, basically) and should see plenty of that against the Packers if Travis Etienne (shoulder) sits again. Jaylen Wright is the explosive RB3 in Miami, where De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert could present opportunities at any time.
I’m buying:
- Both Seahawks running backs. Kenneth Walker is quietly the RB2 in points per game (22.3 PPR), behind only Derrick Henry. Despite starting Week 7 as questionable with an illness, he took 15 touches for 83 yards and two touchdowns. And I’m not worried about Zach Charbonnet out-snapping Walker (33 to 28) this week, but I am targeting Charbonnet as an insurance piece for the oft-injured Walker.
I’m selling:
- Packers RB Josh Jacobs. He’s still valued one tier too high. Despite more rushing attempts (120) than Kyren Williams (116), Jacobs has one rushing touchdown to Williams’ nine. Why? Because Jordan Love is the red-zone option, and Jacobs is tied with Trey Sermon for 20th among players for goal-to-go rushing attempts. He’s not catching enough passes (2.2 per game) to make up for it.
I drafted an underperforming QB (last name: Rodgers, Mahomes, Herbert or Richardson). Help. Thankfully, KC Joyner dove deep on four quarterbacks to find immediate replacements. Notes on two of them:
- Russell Wilson: 24.8 fantasy points in his first start last weekend — and potentially more to come with a favorable upcoming schedule. The Steelers are quietly scoring 27.5 points per game since Week 3 and face a Giants defense allowing 19.8 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks.
- Bo Nix: As KC writes, “Nix has posted 19 or more fantasy points in three of his past five games and ranks 14th in QB points in that span. The key to Nix’s success is rushing prowess. He has tallied 6.3 rushing PPG since Week 3, a pace that is only slightly behind Lamar Jackson (7.9), Jayden Daniels (7.2) and Jalen Hurts (7.0).” He’s my preferred target.
Brandon Aiyuk is gone for the year. Who benefits most? Assuming Deebo Samuel returns soon from the pneumonia that hospitalized him, he should put up monster numbers for the remainder of 2024. As Fantasy Life’s Dwain McFarland noted, Samuel’s team target percentage jumps to 38 percent with Aiyuk sidelined. For context, Justin Jefferson leads the NFL with a 33.3 percent clip. I’d buy Samuel and, as noted, stash Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall — who saw the team’s most targets (four) in Sunday’s second half — as insurance.
Chris Godwin and Mike Evans will miss time. Should I add any Buccaneers receivers? The Athletic’s fantasy guru Jake Ciely had this to say: “I’d go for rookie Jalen McMillan over Sterling Shepard, given the ceiling and ability. McMillan hasn’t done much since Week 1 but he’s a smart receiver who knows how to work space and get open. He can be the No. 1 until Evans is ready and the No. 2 after (if Godwin’s injury is season-ending).” In deeper leagues, Shepard and Trey Palmer are worth a speculative add.
Lions WR Jameson Williams is expected to be suspended two games. Both Kalif Raymond (three catches for 39 yards) and Tim Patrick (2-25) should see increased usage, but the biggest beneficiary might be Sam LaPorta. Williams’ breakout campaign has come at the cost of the sophomore tight end’s production, as LaPorta is averaging 2.3 catches and 37.3 yards per game with just one touchdown in 2024. If Williams is sidelined, LaPorta should return to the third receiving option behind St. Brown and Gibbs.
Week 7 PPR scoring leaders:
For more: Read Jake Ciely’s Week 8 Waiver Wire column for the must-add receivers, quarterbacks and tight ends.
What Dianna’s Hearing: On Tua’s return
On Saturday I reported that Miami Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel shared with his team that Tua Tagovailoa is expected to practice this week. As long as there are no setbacks, Tua will start against the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday. I was told by team sources that he has not had any lingering issues after being diagnosed with a concussion for the third time in two years.
On Tuesday’s episode of the “Scoop City” podcast, my co-host Chase Daniel, who played 14 seasons as a backup quarterback in the NFL, and I had a lengthy conversation featuring his unique perspective on what’s become a difficult situation in Miami.
Chase: “It’s really easy for anyone who hasn’t played to say, ‘What is he doing? Stop playing.’ It is not remotely easy to say that when you have played. And I’ve sat in that position. I’ve been injured, but I know, when I was playing, how much the game meant to me and how blind I was to anyone else saying anything about what I should do.
“There’s so much more to life than football. And it’s almost impossible to see that as a football player because that’s all you know. It takes so much effort, time and sacrifice to be playing the game … (But) how many concussions is too many? When do you eventually walk away from the game? Where do you draw the line?”
Listen to the full episode here.
Back to you, Jacob.
Must-Reads
I spent this morning reviewing what The Athletic’s NFL staff published, and it’s excellent. Here’s a quick look at four articles you’ll enjoy, with a quote from each:
Week 8 Power Rankings: “The Ravens defense has issues. Baltimore, uncharacteristically, is 26th in the league in points allowed (25.7 per game). With this offense, that might not matter.”
What every team should do at the trade deadline: “Chiefs GM Brett Veach has to trade for a receiver as soon as possible. There are plenty of options available, including Diontae Johnson, Demarcus Robinson and Darius Slayton. Compensation shouldn’t be an issue either, as the Chiefs have two 2025 third-round picks.”
NFL QB stock report: “[With Russell Wilson at quarterback], the Steelers had five plays of 30-plus yards in a game for the first time since Week 4 in 2016 (four passes, one run).”
Week 7’s best and worst coaching decisions: “Many assumed the Vikings would blitz at a high rate on third down, but they actually lead the league in blitz rate on second down by a wide margin (39.5 percent). Knowing this, the Lions were more aggressive than they’ve been all season on second down … Goff was 13-of-14 against the blitz.”
Yesterday’s most-clicked: The Athletic’s Mike Sando on the Deshaun Watson situation and the 49ers’ shrinking window.
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