Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump has confirmed he will face Democratic rival Kamala Harris in a high stakes TV debate which could prove disastrous for either candidate.
Following weeks of doubt that the event would go ahead, the September 10 ABC showdown is likely to draw millions of viewers, probably more than any other event before the election. As was the case with Joe Biden in June, either candidates’ performance could be definitive for their campaign.
Newsweek asked three leading experts in presidential debates, rhetoric, and political science what a Harris vs. Trump debate might look like, and what pitfalls each candidate might face in the contest.
Clashing Debate Styles
The debate stage will spotlight the contrasting styles of Trump and Harris, two figures with distinct approaches to public speaking.
Dr. Todd Graham, professor of debate at Southern Illinois University, told Newsweek that Trump’s style as “bombastic hyperbole,” noting that the former president often speaks in generalities without backing his claims with evidence.
“He’s going to make a ton of assertions during his speaking time, and not many of them will be related to the question,” Graham said. “It’s the “throw a bunch of stuff against the wall and see what sticks” method of arguing.”
Graham also noted the challenge for Harris and for audiences posed by Trump’s excessive lying.
“Against Clinton and even Biden, Trump is almost always the better speaker (for a general audience), but he also is the most recorded liar we’ve ever seen in presidential debating,” Graham said. “So, if you don’t care about content, but you only vote from emotions and delivery, Trump usually pleases you in these debates.”
On the other hand, Dr. Ben Voth, Professor of Rhetoric and Director of Debate at Southern Methodist University, told Newsweek that Harris will be likely to cast herself as a prosecutor confronting a defendant.
“She had a strong performance in 2020 performing the prosecutor role against front-runner Joe Biden,” Voth said. “Those legal advocacy skills are arguably what earned her the vice-presidential slot in 2020.”
However, he cautioned that Trump could try to disrupt Harris’s strategy by employing his signature confrontational style, which appeals to the “large segment of the public that finds public discourse to be slanted and contrived.”
Alan Schroeder, Professor Emeritus at Northeastern University, told Newsweek about another potential contrast in their styles. “Trump is famously undisciplined and willing to subvert live events into opportunities for anarchy,” he said.
“Harris, by contrast, has a background as a courtroom prosecutor, which requires a far more disciplined and methodical approach to making one’s case.”
The dynamic between Trump’s unpredictability and Harris’s disciplined approach could create a volatile mix on stage.
Potential Pitfalls for Trump
While Trump’s combative style has won him praise from his base, it also carries significant risks. One of the most pressing dangers for Trump, according to Graham, would be if he reverts back to his rally-style insults.
“He’s quite rude and offensive when talking about Harris from the safety of one of his rallies, but that won’t play well in person and in a debate,” he said.
Furthermore, Schroeder said Trump’s history of discomfort around accomplished women, particularly women of color, could play against him, and that if he behaves as his “worst self,” that he could risk turning off “the independent swing-state voters he needs in order to win the election.”
Another potential pitfall for Trump, according to Schroeder, is that he is “easily needled.” “Harris has shown herself capable of criticizing him in a way that gets under his skin,” he said.
Voth said the biggest threat for Trump would be the “dimension of falsehoods.”
“Trump and his team must know that there will be aggressive fact-checking so recalling factual allegations with specificity will be important,” he said.
Challenges for Harris
While Trump faces significant challenges, Harris is not without her own set of potential pitfalls.
Voth said that she could be harmed by repeating too many rhetorical set pieces, like her well known “unburdened by the past” sentences, and that she would need to step up to what will be the biggest debate of her political career so far.
“This is the highest stake rhetorical event Harris has ever faced and in public questioning she has sometimes faltered with answers that were described as “word salads” that did not effectively answer a question,” he said,
Another challenge for Harris, according to Schroeder, is avoiding playing into the stereotype of the “San Francisco liberal,” in front of a national audience, with whom it would not resonate well.
Graham said that Harris also faces the challenge of maintaining composure if Trump interrupts her.
He noted that in her 2020 debate with Mike Pence, Harris effectively countered interruptions with the phrase, “I’m speaking,” and “I’m speaking now Mr. Vice President,” which he said would be her go-to response.
However, he cautioned that this strategy might not be as effective against Trump. “It works one or two times, but if Harris has to rely on it repeatedly, it could come across as a sign of agitation,” he said.
High Stakes for Both Candidates
With millions expected to tune in, the debate between Trump and Harris will be one of the most watched events of the 2024 campaign. Voth emphasized that the stakes are exponentially higher than in other forms of candidate communication.
“The viewing size for this debate will likely fall between 50 and 80 million people,” he said. “If the impression is primarily negative, the damage could be profound and lasting.”
“Both candidates undoubtedly realize that the debate can end in disaster”
